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Uncertainty-dependent Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks: A New Keynesian Interpretation

Author

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  • Efrem Castelnuovo
  • Giovanni Pellegrino

Abstract

We estimate a nonlinear VAR model to study the real effects of monetary policy shocks in regimes characterized by high vs. low macroeconomic uncertainty. We find unexpected monetary policy moves to exert a substantially milder impact in presence of high uncertainty. We then exploit the set of impulse responses coming from the nonlinear VAR framework to estimate a medium-scale new-Keynesian DSGE model with a minimum-distance approach. The DSGE model is shown to be able to replicate the VAR evidence in both regimes thanks to different estimates of some crucial structural parameters. In particular, we identify a steeper new-Keynesian Phillips curve as the key factor behind the DSGE model’s ability to replicate the milder macroeconomic responses to a monetary policy shock estimated with our VAR in presence of high uncertainty. A version of the model featuring firm-specific capital is shown to be associated to estimates of the price frequency which are in line with some recent evidence based on micro data.

Suggested Citation

  • Efrem Castelnuovo & Giovanni Pellegrino, 2017. "Uncertainty-dependent Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks: A New Keynesian Interpretation," CESifo Working Paper Series 6821, CESifo Group Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6821
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    Cited by:

    1. Goodness C. Aye & Matthew W. Clance & Rangan Gupta, 2017. "The Effectiveness of Monetary and Fiscal Policy Shocks on U.S. Inequality: The Role of Uncertainty," Working Papers 201782, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    2. Magnus Reif, 2018. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Forecasting Macroeconomic Aggregates," ifo Working Paper Series 265, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    3. repec:rba:rbaacv:acv2017-05 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy shocks; uncertainty; Threshold VAR; medium scale DSGE framework; minimum-distance estimation;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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