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Uncertainty and monetary policy in good and bad times

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  • Caggiano, Giovanni
  • Castelnuovo, Efrem
  • Nodari, Gabriela

Abstract

We investigate the role played by systematic monetary policy in tackling the real effects of uncertainty shocks in U.S. recessions and expansions. We model key indicators of the business cycle with a nonlinear VAR that allows for different dynamics in busts and booms. Uncertainty shocks are identi ed by focusing on historical events that are associated to jumps in nancial volatility. Uncertainty shocks hitting in recessions are found to trigger a more abrupt drop and a faster recovery in real activity than in expansions. Counterfactual simulations suggest that the effectiveness of systematic monetary policy in stabilizing real activity is greater in expansions. Finally, we provide empirical and narrative evidence pointing to a risk management approach by the Federal Reserve.

Suggested Citation

  • Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Nodari, Gabriela, 2017. "Uncertainty and monetary policy in good and bad times," Research Discussion Papers 8/2017, Bank of Finland.
  • Handle: RePEc:bof:bofrdp:2017_008
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    2. Rangan Gupta & Chi Keung Marco Lau & Mark E. Wohar, 2016. "The Impact of US Uncertainty on the Euro Area in Good and Bad Times: Evidence from a Quantile Structural Vector Autoregressive Model," Working Papers 201681, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    3. Eickmeier, Sandra & Metiu, Norbert & Prieto, Esteban, 2016. "Time-varying Volatility, Financial Intermediation and Monetary Policy," IWH Discussion Papers 19/2016, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    4. Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo & Juan Manuel Figueres, 2017. "Economic Policy Uncertainty Spillovers in Booms and Busts," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2017n13, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    5. Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Pellegrino, Giovanni, 2017. "Estimating the real effects of uncertainty shocks at the Zero Lower Bound," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 257-272.
    6. Christina Christou & Rangan Gupta, 2016. "Forecasting Equity Premium in a Panel of OECD Countries: The Role of Economic Policy Uncertainty," Working Papers 201622, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    7. Pellegrino, Giovanni, 2018. "Uncertainty and the real effects of monetary policy shocks in the Euro area," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 177-181.
    8. Mehmet Balcilar & Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta & Reneé van Eyden, 2016. "Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in the Euro Area: The Role of US Economic Policy Uncertainty," Working Papers 201620, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    9. Castelnuovo, Efrem & Tran, Trung Duc, 2017. "Google It Up! A Google Trends-based Uncertainty index for the United States and Australia," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 149-153.
    10. repec:eee:jpolmo:v:39:y:2017:i:6:p:1052-1064 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Damette, Olivier & Parent, Antoine & Pellegrino, Giovanni, 2017. "Liquidity traps and large-scale financial crises," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 99-114.
    12. Efrem Castelnuovo & Giovanni Pellegrino, 2017. "Uncertainty-dependent Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks: A New Keynesian Interpretation," CESifo Working Paper Series 6821, CESifo Group Munich.
    13. Cheng, Chak Hung Jack & Chiu, Ching-Wai (Jeremy), 2016. "Nonlinearities of mortgage spreads over the business cycles," Bank of England working papers 634, Bank of England.
    14. Gehrke, Britta & Hochmuth, Brigitte, 2017. "Counteracting unemployment in crises : non-linear effects of short-time work policy," IAB Discussion Paper 201727, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    15. Netšunajev, Aleksei & Glass, Katharina, 2017. "Uncertainty and employment dynamics in the euro area and the US," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 48-62.
    16. Falck, Elisabeth & Hoffmann, Mathias & Hürtgen, Patrick, 2017. "Disagreement and monetary policy," Discussion Papers 29/2017, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    17. Christian Pierdzioch & Rangan Gupta, 2017. "Uncertainty and Forecasts of U.S. Recessions," Working Papers 201732, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    18. Efrem Castelnuovo & Trung Duc Tran, 2018. "Google it up! A Google Trends-based Uncertainty Index for the United States and Australia," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0223, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    19. Isaac Baley & Julio A. Blanco, 2016. "Menu costs, uncertainty cycles, and the propagation of nominal shocks," Economics Working Papers 1532, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    20. Mawuli Segnon & Rangan Gupta & Stelios Bekiros & Mark E. Wohar, 2016. "Forecasting US GNP Growth: The Role of Uncertainty," Working Papers 201667, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
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    22. Silvia Delrio, 2016. "Estimating the effects of global uncertainty in open economies," Working Papers 2016:19, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".

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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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