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Identifying the Sources of Instabilities in Macroeconomic Fluctuations

Author

Listed:
  • Atsushi Inoue

    (North Carolina State University)

  • Barbara Rossi

    (Duke University)

Abstract

This paper investigates the sources of the substantial decrease in output growth volatility in the mid-1980s by identifying which of the structural parameters in a representative New Keynesian and structural VAR models changed. Overturning conventional wisdom, we show that the Great Moderation was due not only to changes in shock volatilities but also to changes in monetary policy parameters, as well as in the private sector's parameters. The Great Moderation was previously attributed to good luck because the alternative sources of instabilities appear to have offsetting effects on output volatility and therefore were impossible to detect using existing techniques. © 2011 The President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Suggested Citation

  • Atsushi Inoue & Barbara Rossi, 2011. "Identifying the Sources of Instabilities in Macroeconomic Fluctuations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(4), pages 1186-1204, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:93:y:2011:i:4:p:1186-1204
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    Cited by:

    1. Pesaran, M.H. & Pick, A. & Pranovich, M., 2011. "Optimal Forecasts in the Presence of Structural Breaks (Updated 14 November 2011)," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1163, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    2. Mariano Kulish & Adrian Pagan, 2017. "Estimation and Solution of Models with Expectations and Structural Changes," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(2), pages 255-274, March.
    3. Rossi, Barbara, 2013. "Advances in Forecasting under Instability," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
    4. Keating, John W. & Valcarcel, Victor J., 2017. "What's so great about the Great Moderation?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 115-142.
    5. Refet S. GÜRKAYNAK & Zeynep KANTUR & M.Anıl TAŞ & Seçil YILDIRIM-KARAMAN, 2015. "Monetary Policy in Turkey after Central Bank Independence," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 30(356), pages 09-38.
    6. Bataa, Erdenebat & Izzeldin, Marwan & Osborn, Denise R., 2016. "Changes in the global oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 161-176.
    7. Galvao Ana Beatriz & Marcellino Massimiliano, 2014. "The effects of the monetary policy stance on the transmission mechanism," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(3), pages 1-20, May.
    8. Chang, Andrew C. & Li, Phillip, 2015. "Measurement Error in Macroeconomic Data and Economics Research: Data Revisions, Gross Domestic Product, and Gross Domestic Income," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-102, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Jerger, Jürgen & Röhe, Oke, 2009. "Testing for Parameter Stability in DSGE Models. The Cases of France, Germany and Spain," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 453, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
    10. Ayse Kabukcuoglu & Enrique Martínez-García, 2016. "What Helps Forecast U.S. Inflation?—Mind the Gap!," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1615, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    11. Tommaso Ferraresi & Andrea Roventini & Willi Semmler, 2016. "Macroeconomic regimes, technological shocks and employment dynamics," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2016-19, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    12. Harun Mirza & Lidia Storjohann, 2011. "Making a Weak Instrument Set Stronger: Factor-Based Estimation of the Taylor Rule," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers bgse13_2012, University of Bonn, Germany.
    13. Baele, Lieven & Bekaert, Geert & Cho, Seonghoon & Inghelbrecht, Koen & Moreno, Antonio, 2015. "Macroeconomic regimes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 51-71.
    14. Paccagnini, Alessia, 2017. "Dealing with Misspecification in DSGE Models: A Survey," MPRA Paper 82914, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Jürgen Jerger & Oke Röhe, 2014. "Testing for parameter stability in DSGE models. The cases of France, Germany, Italy, and Spain," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 329-351, September.
    16. M Hashem Pesaran & Ron P Smith, 2017. "Tests of Policy Interventions in DSGE Models," BCAM Working Papers 1706, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
    17. Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2015. "Forecasting in Nonstationary Environments: What Works and What Doesn't in Reduced-Form and Structural Models," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 207-229, August.
    18. Chang, Andrew C. & Li, Phillip, 2015. "Is Economics Research Replicable? Sixty Published Papers from Thirteen Journals Say "Usually Not"," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-83, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Givens, Gregory E. & Salemi, Michael K., 2015. "Inferring monetary policy objectives with a partially observed state," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 190-208.
    20. Liu, Yuelin & Morley, James, 2014. "Structural evolution of the postwar U.S. economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 50-68.
    21. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Pick, Andreas & Pranovich, Mikhail, 2013. "Optimal forecasts in the presence of structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 134-152.
    22. Galvão, Ana Beatriz C & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2010. "Endogenous Monetary Policy Regimes and the Great Moderation," CEPR Discussion Papers 7827, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    23. Lutz Kilian, 2013. "Structural vector autoregressions," Chapters,in: Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 22, pages 515-554 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    24. John W. Keating & Victor J. Valcarcel, 2012. "What's so Great about the Great Moderation? A Multi-Country Investigation of Time-Varying Volatilities of Output Growth and Inflation," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201204, University of Kansas, Department of Economics.
    25. Francesca Marino, 2016. "The Italian productivity slowdown in a Real Business Cycle perspective," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 63(2), pages 171-193, June.

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