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Risk management, nonlinearity and aggressiveness in monetary policy: The case of the US Fed

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  • Gnabo, Jean-Yves
  • Moccero, Diego Nicolas

Abstract

We contribute to the empirical literature on the risk-management approach to monetary policy by estimating regime switching models where the strength of the response of monetary policy to macroeconomic conditions depends on the level of risk associated with the inflation outlook and risk in financial markets. Using quarterly data for the Greenspan period we find that: (i) risk in the inflation outlook and in financial markets are a more powerful driver of monetary policy regime changes than variables typically suggested in the literature, such as the level of inflation and the output gap; (ii) estimation of regime switching models shows that the response of the US Fed to the inflation outlook is invariant across policy regimes; (iii) however, in periods of high economic risk monetary policy tends to respond more aggressively to the output gap and the degree of inertia tends to be lower than in normal circumstances; and (iv) the US Fed is estimated to have responded aggressively to the output gap in the late 1980s and beginning of the 1990s, and in the late 1990s and early 2000s. These results are consistent with Mishkin (2008)’s view that in periods of high economic risk monetary authorities should respond aggressively to changes in macroeconomic conditions while the degree of inertia should be lower than in normal circumstances.

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  • Gnabo, Jean-Yves & Moccero, Diego Nicolas, 2015. "Risk management, nonlinearity and aggressiveness in monetary policy: The case of the US Fed," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 281-294.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:55:y:2015:i:c:p:281-294
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2013.11.016
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    Cited by:

    1. Eichler, Stefan & Lähner, Tom & Noth, Felix, 2016. "Regional Banking Instability and FOMC Voting," Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145803, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. repec:eee:jbfina:v:87:y:2018:i:c:p:282-292 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Alexandros Kontonikas & Charles Nolan & Zivile Zekaite, 2014. "Monetary policy in times of financial stress," Working Papers 2014_08, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    4. Drakos, Anastassios A. & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2015. "The conduct of monetary policy in the Eurozone before and after the financial crisis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 83-92.
    5. Francois Gourio & Jonas Fisher, 2015. "Risk Management for Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound," 2015 Meeting Papers 665, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Charles Evans & Jonas Fisher & Francois Gourio & Spencer Krane, 2015. "Risk Management for Monetary Policy Near the Zero Lower Bound," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 46(1 (Spring), pages 141-219.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    US Fed; Monetary policy; Risk management; Smooth-transition regression model; Aggressiveness;

    JEL classification:

    • C24 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models; Threshold Regression Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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