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Does the Federal Reserve Follow a Non-Linear Taylor Rule?

Author

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  • Kenneth Petersen

    (University of Connecticut)

Abstract

The Taylor rule has become one of the most studied strategies for monetary policy. Yet, little is known whether the Federal Reserve follows a non-linear Taylor rule. This paper employs the smooth transition regression model and asks the question: does the Federal Reserve change its policy-rule according to the level of inflation and/or the output gap? I find that the Federal Reserve does follow a non-linear Taylor rule and, more importantly, that the Federal Reserve followed a non-linear Taylor rule during the golden era of monetary policy, 1985-2005, and a linear Taylor rule throughout the dark age of monetary policy, 1960-1979. Thus, good monetary policy is associated with a non-linear Taylor rule: once inflation approaches a certain threshold, the Federal Reserve adjusts its policy-rule and begins to respond more forcefully to inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Kenneth Petersen, 2007. "Does the Federal Reserve Follow a Non-Linear Taylor Rule?," Working papers 2007-37, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:uct:uconnp:2007-37
    Note: I would like to thank Christian Zimmermann (adviser), Paul Beaumont, Steve Cunningham, and Philip Shaw for many good conversations about monetary policy and time series econometrics.
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    File URL: http://web2.uconn.edu/economics/working/2007-37.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Roman Horváth, 2008. "Asymmetric Monetary Policy in the Czech Republic?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 58(09-10), pages 470-481, December.
    2. baaziz, yosra, 2016. "Les règles de Taylor à l’épreuve de la révolution : cas de l’Égypte
      [The Taylor rule to the test of the revolution: the case of Egypt]
      ," MPRA Paper 69779, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. repec:spr:eurase:v:7:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s40822-017-0069-x is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Ioannis Pragidis & Periklis Gogas & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2013. "Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy in the U.S. and Brazil," Working Papers Series 340, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    5. Mandler, Martin, 2011. "Threshold effects in the monetary policy reaction function of the Deutsche Bundesbank," MPRA Paper 32430, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Yu Hsing, 2008. "Test of the Response of the Overnight Rate to the Real Exchange Rate: The Case of Korea, Hong Kong, and Singapore," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 333-339.
    7. Castro, Vítor, 2008. "Are Central Banks following a linear or nonlinear (augmented) Taylor rule?," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 872, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    8. repec:bla:sajeco:v:85:y:2017:i:1:p:28-51 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Yüksel, Ebru & Metin-Ozcan, Kivilcim & Hatipoglu, Ozan, 2013. "A survey on time-varying parameter Taylor rule: A model modified with interest rate pass-through," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 122-134.
    10. Moccero, Diego & Gnabo, Jean-Yves, 2015. "The risk management approach to monetary policy, nonlinearity and aggressiveness: the case of the US Fed," Working Paper Series 1792, European Central Bank.
    11. Gnabo, Jean-Yves & Moccero, Diego Nicolas, 2015. "Risk management, nonlinearity and aggressiveness in monetary policy: The case of the US Fed," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 281-294.
    12. Ma, Yong, 2014. "Monetary policy based on nonlinear quantity rule: Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 89-104.
    13. Vítor, Castro, 2011. "Can central banks' monetary policy be described by a linear (augmented) Taylor rule or by a nonlinear rule?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 228-246, December.
    14. Bhaduri, Saumitra & Sethudurai, Raja, 2013. "Non-Linear Taylor Rule through Threshold Estimation," MPRA Paper 44844, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Ma, Yong, 2016. "Nonlinear monetary policy and macroeconomic stabilization in emerging market economies: Evidence from China," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 461-480.
    16. Darius Kulikauskas, 2014. "Nonlinear Taylor rule for the European Central Bank," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(3), pages 1798-1804.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Taylor rule; Federal Reserve; non-linearity; monetary policy;

    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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