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Uncertainty and Monetary Policy in Good and Bad Times

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  • Giovanni Caggiano
  • Efrem Castelnuovo
  • Gabriela Nodari

Abstract

We investigate the role played by systematic monetary policy in tackling the real effects of uncertainty shocks in U.S. recessions and expansions. We model key indicators of the business cycle with a nonlinear VAR that allows for different dynamics in busts and booms. Uncertainty shocks are identified by focusing on historical events that are associated to jumps in financial volatility. Uncertainty shocks hitting in recessions are found to trigger a more abrupt drop and a faster recovery in real activity than in expansions. Counterfactual simulations suggest that the effectiveness of systematic monetary policy in stabilizing real activity is greater in expansions. Finally, we provide empirical and narrative evidence pointing to a risk management approach by the Federal Reserve.

Suggested Citation

  • Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo & Gabriela Nodari, 2017. "Uncertainty and Monetary Policy in Good and Bad Times," CESifo Working Paper Series 6630, CESifo Group Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6630
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    uncertainty shocks; nonlinear Smooth Transition Vector AutoRegressions; Generalized Impulse Response Functions; systematic monetary policy;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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