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Linearity and Misspecification Tests for Vector Smooth Transition Regression Models

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  • Timo Teräsvirta

    () (Aarhus University and CREATES)

  • Yukai Yang

    () (CORE, Université catholique de Louvain and CREATES)

Abstract

The purpose of the paper is to derive Lagrange multiplier and Lagrange multiplier type specification and misspecification tests for vector smooth transition regression models. We report results from simulation studies in which the size and power properties of the proposed asymptotic tests in small samples are considered. The results on simulating the size show that these tests generally suffer from positive size distortion. We find that both Wilks's ? and Rao's F statistic, the latter in particular, have satisfactory size properties and can generally be recommended for empirical use. The local asymptotic power and finite sample power properties of these tests are studied as well. JEL Classification: C12, C32, C52

Suggested Citation

  • Timo Teräsvirta & Yukai Yang, 2014. "Linearity and Misspecification Tests for Vector Smooth Transition Regression Models," CREATES Research Papers 2014-04, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  • Handle: RePEc:aah:create:2014-04
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Laitinen, Kenneth, 1978. "Why is demand homogeneity so often rejected?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 187-191.
    2. Changli He & Timo Terasvirta & Andres Gonzalez, 2009. "Testing Parameter Constancy in Stationary Vector Autoregressive Models Against Continuous Change," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(1-3), pages 225-245.
    3. Birgit Strikholm & Timo Teräsvirta, 2006. "A sequential procedure for determining the number of regimes in a threshold autoregressive model," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 9(3), pages 472-491, November.
    4. Timo Teräsvirta & Yukai Yang, 2014. "Specification, Estimation and Evaluation of Vector Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models with Applications," CREATES Research Papers 2014-08, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    5. Goncalves, Silvia & Kilian, Lutz, 2004. "Bootstrapping autoregressions with conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 89-120, November.
    6. Meisner, James F., 1979. "The sad fate of the asymptotic Slutsky symmetry test for large systems," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 231-233.
    7. Saikkonen, Pentti, 2008. "Stability Of Regime Switching Error Correction Models Under Linear Cointegration," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(01), pages 294-318, February.
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    3. Guay Lim & Sarantis Tsiaplias, 2016. "Non-Linearities in the Relationship between House Prices and Interest Rates: Implications for Monetary Policy," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2016n02, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    4. Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Figueres, Juan Manuel, 2017. "Economic policy uncertainty and unemployment in the United States: A nonlinear approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 31-34.
    5. Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo & Gabriela Nodari, 2014. "Uncertainty and Monetary Policy in Good and Bad Times," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0188, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    6. Demetrescu, Matei & Leppin, Julian Sebastian & Reitz, Stefan, 2017. "Homogenous vs. heterogenous transition functions in smooth transition regressions: A LM-type test," Kiel Working Papers 2094, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    7. repec:eee:dyncon:v:81:y:2017:i:c:p:115-139 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. YANG, Yukai, 2014. "Testing constancy of the error covariance matrix in vector models against parametric alternatives using a spectral decomposition," CORE Discussion Papers 2014017, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    9. repec:eee:wdevel:v:96:y:2017:i:c:p:490-502 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Schleer, Frauke & Semmler, Willi, 2015. "Financial sector and output dynamics in the euro area: Non-linearities reconsidered," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 235-263.
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    13. Schleer, Frauke & Semmler, Willi, 2013. "Financial sector-output dynamics in the euro area: Non-linearities reconsidered," ZEW Discussion Papers 13-068, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    14. Kevin Larcher & Jaebeom Kim & Youngju Kim, 2018. "Uncertainty Shocks and Asymmetric Dynamics in Korea: A Nonlinear Approach," Working Papers 2018-12, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    15. Kirstin Hubrich & Timo Teräsvirta, 2013. "Thresholds and Smooth Transitions in Vector Autoregressive Models," CREATES Research Papers 2013-18, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    16. Willi Semmler & Christian R. Proaño, 2015. "Escape Routes from Sovereign Default Risk in the Euro Area," International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics,in: Monetary Policy in the Context of the Financial Crisis: New Challenges and Lessons, volume 24, pages 163-193 Emerald Publishing Ltd.
    17. repec:bla:ecorec:v:94:y:2018:i:s1:p:33-48 is not listed on IDEAS
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    19. Chlibi Souhir & Jawadi Fredj & Sellami Mohamed, 2017. "Modeling threshold effects in stock price co-movements: a vector nonlinear cointegration approach," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(1), pages 47-63, February.
    20. Ernst, Ekkehard & Semmler, Willi & Haider, Alexander, 2017. "Debt-deflation, financial market stress and regime change – Evidence from Europe using MRVAR," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 115-139.
    21. Abdelkamel Alj & Christophe Ley & Guy Melard, 2015. "Asymptotic Properties of QML Estimators for VARMA Models with Time-Dependent Coefficients: Part I," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2015-21, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    22. Steven M. Fazzari & James Morley & Irina B. Panovska, 2017. "When Do Discretionary Changes in Government Spending or Taxes Have Larger Effects?," Discussion Papers 2017-04, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    23. Cheng, Chak Hung Jack & Chiu, Ching-Wai (Jeremy), 2016. "Nonlinearities of mortgage spreads over the business cycles," Bank of England working papers 634, Bank of England.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Vector STAR models; Linearity test; Misspecification test; Vector nonlinear time series; Serial correlation; Parameter constancy; Residual nonlinearity test;

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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