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Asymmetric Reactions of the U.S. Natural Gas Market and Economic Activity

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  • Bao H. NGUYEN
  • OKIMOTO Tatsuyoshi

Abstract

This paper provides new empirical evidence on the asymmetric reactions of the U.S. natural gas market and the U.S. economy to its market fundamental shocks in different phases of the business cycle. To this end, we employ a smooth-transition vector autoregression (STVAR) model to capture the asymmetric responses depending on economic conditions. Our results indicate that the STVAR model provides a plausible explanation to the behavior of the U.S. natural gas market, which reacts asymmetrically in both bad and good times. For example, a positive real oil price shock has a negative impact on natural gas production in recessions, while the responses of natural gas production to the same shock are significantly positive during expansions. In addition, the positive relationship between the oil and natural gas prices is more prominent in expansions in the long run. In addition, U.S. economic activity is found to be much more sensitive to oil and natural gas price shocks occurring in recessions than in expansions.

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  • Bao H. NGUYEN & OKIMOTO Tatsuyoshi, 2017. "Asymmetric Reactions of the U.S. Natural Gas Market and Economic Activity," Discussion papers 17102, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  • Handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:17102
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    Cited by:

    1. Rubaszek, Michał & Karolak, Zuzanna & Kwas, Marek, 2020. "Mean-reversion, non-linearities and the dynamics of industrial metal prices. A forecasting perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    2. Hou, Chenghan & Nguyen, Bao H., 2018. "Understanding the US natural gas market: A Markov switching VAR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 42-53.
    3. Bao H. NGUYEN & OKIMOTO Tatsuyoshi & Trung Duc TRAN, 2019. "Uncertainty-Dependent and Sign-Dependent Effects of Oil Market Shocks," Discussion papers 19042, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).

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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy

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