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How Does the U.S. Natural Gas Market React to Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market?

Author

Listed:
  • Ali Jadidzadeh
  • Apostolos Serletis

    (University of Calgary)

Abstract

In this paper we use monthly data (over the period from January 1976 to December 2012) and a structural VAR model to disentangle demand and supply shocks in the global crude oil market and investigate their effects on the real price of natural gas in the United States. We identify the model by assuming that innovations to the real price of crude oil are predetermined with respect to the natural gas market and show that close to 45% of the variation in the real price of natural gas can be attributed to structural supply and demand shocks in the global crude oil market.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Ali Jadidzadeh & Apostolos Serletis, "undated". "How Does the U.S. Natural Gas Market React to Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market?," Working Papers 2017-02, Department of Economics, University of Calgary.
    • Handle: RePEc:clg:wpaper:2017-02
    as

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    File URL: https://econ.ucalgary.ca/sites/econ.ucalgary.ca.manageprofile/files/unitis/publications/1-7642601/Jadidzadeh_and_Serletis_EE.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ron Alquist & Lutz Kilian, 2010. "What do we learn from the price of crude oil futures?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 539-573.
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    3. Jeff D. Makholm, 2015. "Regulation of Natural Gas in the United States, Canada, and Europe: Prospects for a Low Carbon Fuel," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 9(1), pages 107-127.
    4. Panagiotidis, Theodore & Rutledge, Emilie, 2007. "Oil and gas markets in the UK: Evidence from a cointegrating approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 329-347, March.
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    6. Apostolos Serletis & Ricardo Rangel-Ruiz, 2007. "Testing for Common Features in North American Energy Markets," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Quantitative And Empirical Analysis Of Energy Markets, chapter 14, pages 172-187, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Lutz Kilian & Cheolbeom Park, 2009. "The Impact Of Oil Price Shocks On The U.S. Stock Market," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1267-1287, November.
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    9. Nick, Sebastian & Thoenes, Stefan, 2014. "What drives natural gas prices? — A structural VAR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 517-527.
    10. Lutz Kilian & Daniel P. Murphy, 2014. "The Role Of Inventories And Speculative Trading In The Global Market For Crude Oil," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 454-478, April.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy

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