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How the Crude Oil Market Affects the Natural Gas Market? Demand and Supply Shocks

Author

Listed:
  • Narjes Zamani

    (Department of Economics, Keio University, Tokyo, Japan)

Abstract

In this paper, the global structural relationship between the prices of crude oil and natural gas is investigated using the recently introduced decomposition of the real price of crude oil by Kilian (2009). A four-variable structural vector autoregressive model (SVAR) for oil and natural gas markets is developed for this investigation. We find some evidence that the crude oil market affects the natural gas market through a combination of demand shocks rather than through oil supply shocks. The uncertainty about future oil supply causes precautionary demand in the oil market, which shifts to the natural gas market and increases the natural gas price as the primary substitute for oil. Meanwhile, global demand shocks influence both crude oil and natural gas prices, which leads to similar fluctuations in the prices of oil and natural gas. Consequently, demand shocks link oil and natural gas markets and produce similar changes in their prices

Suggested Citation

  • Narjes Zamani, 2016. "How the Crude Oil Market Affects the Natural Gas Market? Demand and Supply Shocks," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 6(2), pages 217-221.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2016-02-9
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    Cited by:

    1. Herry Kartika Gandhi & Ispány Márton, 2024. "Multi-step Natural Gas Price Forecasting using Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition and Long Short-Term Memory Hybrid Model," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(4), pages 590-598, July.
    2. Indupurnahayu & Edhie Budi Setiawan & Lira Agusinta & Ryan Firdiansyah Suryawan & Prasadja Ricardianto & Mustika Sari & Sri Mulyono & Reza Fauzi Jaya Sakti, 2021. "Changes in Demand and Supply of the Crude Oil Market During the COVID-19 Pandemic and its Effects on the Natural Gas Market," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(3), pages 1-6.
    3. Jean Gaston Tamba & Salom Ndjakomo Essiane & Emmanuel Flavian Sapnken & Francis Djanna Koffi & Jean Luc Nsouand l & Bozidar Soldo & Donatien Njomo, 2018. "Forecasting Natural Gas: A Literature Survey," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(3), pages 216-249.
    4. Mukhtar Danladi Galadima & Abubakar Wambai Aminu, 2017. "Asymmetric cointegration and causality between natural gas consumption and economic growth in Nigeria," ECONOMICS AND POLICY OF ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2017(3), pages 59-71.
    5. Wood, Dallas & Larson, Justin & Jones, Jason & Galperin, Diana & Shelby, Michael & Gonzalez, Manuel, 2022. "World oil price impacts on country-specific fuel markets: Evidence of a muted global rebound effect," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
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    7. Sudeshna Ghosh & Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Buhari Doğan & Emmanuel Joel Aikins Abakah, 2024. "The Dynamic Relationship Between Gas and Crude Oil Markets and the Causal Impact of US Shale Gas," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 63(6), pages 2501-2524, June.
    8. Narjes Zamani, 2016. "The Relationship between Crude Oil and Coal Markets: A New Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 6(4), pages 801-805.
    9. Hou, Chenghan & Nguyen, Bao H., 2018. "Understanding the US natural gas market: A Markov switching VAR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 42-53.
    10. Nguyen, Bao H. & Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi, 2019. "Asymmetric reactions of the US natural gas market and economic activity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 86-99.
    11. Sanin, Maria Eugenia & Özkan, Ayşegül Uçkun, 2024. "Attractiveness of clean energy stocks in Europe," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(PA).
    12. Abricha, Amal & Ben Amar, Amine & Bellalah, Makram, 2024. "Commodity futures markets under stress and stress-free periods: Further insights from a quantile connectedness approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 229-246.
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    14. Chang, Chia-Lin & McAleer, Michael & Wang, Yu-Ann, 2020. "Herding behaviour in energy stock markets during the Global Financial Crisis, SARS, and ongoing COVID-19," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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