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Time-Varying Shock Transmission in Non-Gaussian Structural Vector Autoregressions

Author

Listed:
  • Helmut Lütkepohl
  • Till Strohsal

Abstract

This paper analyzes possibly time-varying shock transmission in structural vector autoregressive (VAR) models when the reduced-form VAR coefficients are time-invariant and the shocks are identified through non-Gaussianity. To check for possible time-variation in the impulse responses, we propose Wald tests for two situations: (1) homoskedastic and (2) heteroskedastic structural shocks. For the latter case, the challenge is to ensure that the test does not indicate time-varying impulse responses if the changes are due only to changes in the variances of the shocks. To illustrate the usefulness of the tests, they are applied to an empirical model of the crude oil market. They support time-varying shock transmission reflected in impulse response functions that change over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Helmut Lütkepohl & Till Strohsal, 2025. "Time-Varying Shock Transmission in Non-Gaussian Structural Vector Autoregressions," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2110, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp2110
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin Bruns & Helmut Lutkepohl, 2024. "Heteroskedastic Structural Vector Autoregressions Identified via Long-run Restrictions," University of East Anglia School of Economics Working Paper Series 2024-06, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
    2. Gouriéroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain & Renne, Jean-Paul, 2017. "Statistical inference for independent component analysis: Application to structural VAR models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 196(1), pages 111-126.
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    6. Martin Bruns & Helmut Luetkepohl, 2023. "Have the Effects of Shocks to Oil Price Expectations Changed? Evidence from Heteroskedastic Proxy Vector Autoregressions," University of East Anglia School of Economics Working Paper Series 2023-03, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Structural vector autoregression; independent component analysis; non-Gaussian shocks; structural break tests; heteroskedasticity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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