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Have the Effects of Shocks to Oil Price Expectations Changed?: Evidence from Heteroskedastic Proxy Vector Autoregressions

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  • Martin Bruns
  • Helmut Lütkepohl

Abstract

Studies of the crude oil market based on structural vector autoregressive (VAR) models typically assume a time-invariant model and transmission of shocks or they consider a time-varying model and shock transmission. We assume a heteroskedastic reduced-form VAR model with time-invariant slope coefficients and test for time-varying impulse responses in a model for the global crude oil market that includes key macroeconomic variables. We find evidence for changes in the transmission of shocks to oil price expectations during the last decades which can be attributed to heteroskedasticity.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Bruns & Helmut Lütkepohl, 2023. "Have the Effects of Shocks to Oil Price Expectations Changed?: Evidence from Heteroskedastic Proxy Vector Autoregressions," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2036, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp2036
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Tobias Broer & John V. Kramer & Kurt Mitman, 2025. "The Distributional Effects of Oil Shocks," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 73(3), pages 851-889, September.
    2. Bruns, Martin & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 2025. "Comparing external and internal instruments for vector autoregressions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    3. Helmut Lütkepohl & Till Strohsal, 2025. "Time-Varying Shock Transmission in Non-Gaussian Structural Vector Autoregressions," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2110, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    4. Kilian, Lutz, 2024. "How to construct monthly VAR proxies based on daily surprises in futures markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    5. Qureshi, Irfan A. & Ahmad, Ghufran, 2025. "Oil price shocks and US business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    6. Lorenzo Mori & Gert Peersman, 2024. "Estimating the Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Supply News," CESifo Working Paper Series 11532, CESifo.
    7. Kilian, Lutz, 2023. "How to Construct Monthly VAR Proxies Based on Daily Futures Market Surprises," CEPR Discussion Papers 18348, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Holtemöller, Oliver & Kriwoluzky, Alexander & Kwak, Boreum, 2024. "Is there an information channel of monetary policy?," IWH Discussion Papers 17/2020, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), revised 2024.

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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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