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Has Inflation Targeting Become Less Credible? Oil Prices, Global Aggregate Demand and Inflation Expectations during the Global Financial Crisis

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  • Sussman, Nathan
  • Zohar, Osnat

Abstract

Following the onset of the global financial crisis (2008) we witness a strengthening of the correlation between crude oil prices and medium-term inflation expectations. Using the first principal component of commodity prices as a measure for global aggregate demand, we decompose oil prices into a global demand factor and idiosyncratic factors that include supply side effects and weather conditions. The decomposition of oil prices allows us to show that since the crisis, global five-year breakeven inflation rates react quite strongly to global aggregate demand conditions embedded in oil prices. The result suggests that market participants perceive inflation targeting as either less effective around the effective lower bound or less aggressive when inflation deviates below target. Alternatively, it may be that in recent years monetary authorities have additional considerations such as macro-prudential issues.

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  • Sussman, Nathan & Zohar, Osnat, 2016. "Has Inflation Targeting Become Less Credible? Oil Prices, Global Aggregate Demand and Inflation Expectations during the Global Financial Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 11535, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11535
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    Cited by:

    1. Nadine Baudot-Trajtenberg & Itamar Caspi, 2018. "Measuring the importance of global factors in determining inflation in Israel," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Globalisation and deglobalisation, volume 100, pages 183-208, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Andrew Filardo & Jacopo Lombardi & Carlos Montoro, 2018. "Monetary policy spillovers, global commodity prices and cooperation," BIS Working Papers 696, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Takuji Fueki & Hiroka Higashi & Naoto Higashio & Jouchi Nakajima & Shinsuke Ohyama & Yoichiro Tamanyu, 2018. "Identifying oil price shocks and their consequences: the role of expectations in the crude oil market," BIS Working Papers 725, Bank for International Settlements.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    anchoring; credibility; inflation expectations; inflation targeting; Monetary policy; oil prices;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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