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Country-Specific Oil Supply Shocks and the Global Economy: a Counterfactual Analysis

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  • Kamiar Mohaddes

    () (University of Cambridge)

  • M. Hashem Pesaran

    ()

Abstract

This paper investigates the global macroeconomic consequences of country-specific oil-supply shocks. Our contribution is both theoretical and empirical. On the theoretical side, we develop a model for the global oil market and integrate this within a compact quarterly model of the global economy to illustrate how our multi-country approach to modelling oil markets can be used to identify country-specific oil-supply shocks. On the empirical side, estimating the GVAR-Oil model for 27 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2 to 2013Q1, we show that the global economic implications of oil-supply shocks (due to, for instance, sanctions, wars, or natural disasters) vary considerably depending on which country is subject to the shock. In particular, we find that adverse shocks to Iranian oil output are neutralized in terms of their effects on the global economy (real outputs and financial markets) mainly due to an increase in Saudi Arabian oil production. In contrast, a negative shock to oil supply in Saudi Arabia leads to an immediate and permanent increase in oil prices, given that the loss in Saudi Arabian production is not compensated for by the other oil producers. As a result, a Saudi Arabian oil supply shock has significant adverse effects for the global economy with real GDP falling in both advanced and emerging economies, and large losses in real equity prices worldwide.

Suggested Citation

  • Kamiar Mohaddes & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2015. "Country-Specific Oil Supply Shocks and the Global Economy: a Counterfactual Analysis," Working Papers 927, Economic Research Forum, revised Jul 2015.
  • Handle: RePEc:erg:wpaper:927
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Mohaddes, Kamiar & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2017. "Oil prices and the global economy: Is it different this time around?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 315-325.
    2. Kamiar Mohaddes & Mehdi Raissi, 2017. "Do Sovereign Wealth Funds Dampen the Negative Effects of Commodity Price Volatility?," Working Papers 1106, Economic Research Forum, revised 06 Aug 2000.
    3. Cashin, Paul & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Raissi, Mehdi, 2017. "China's slowdown and global financial market volatility: Is world growth losing out?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 164-175.
    4. repec:eee:ecmode:v:71:y:2018:i:c:p:289-304 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Kamiar Mohaddes & Mehdi Raissi, 2015. "The U.S. Oil Supply Revolution and the Global Economy," IMF Working Papers 15/259, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Jarrett, U. & Mohaddes, K. & Mohtadi, H., 2018. "Oil Price Volatility, Financial Institutions and Economic Growth," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1851, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    7. Povilas Lastauskas & Julius Stakenas, 2016. "Openness and Structural Labour Market Reforms: Counterfactuals for Lithuania," Bank of Lithuania Discussion Paper Series 1, Bank of Lithuania.
    8. repec:eee:inecon:v:106:y:2017:i:c:p:37-54 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Cashin, Paul & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Raissi, Mehdi, 2017. "Fair weather or foul? The macroeconomic effects of El Niño," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 37-54.
    10. Lorusso, Marco & Pieroni, Luca, 2018. "Causes and consequences of oil price shocks on the UK economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 223-236.
    11. repec:eee:ecmode:v:72:y:2018:i:c:p:78-98 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Afees A. Salisu & Idris Adediran, 2018. "US shale oil and the behaviour of commodity prices," Working Papers 047, Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan.
    13. Alberto Behar & Robert A. Ritz, 2016. "OPEC vs US shale oil: Analyzing the shift to a market-share strategy," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1623, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    14. Alberto Behar & Robert A Ritz, 2016. "An Analysis of OPEC’s Strategic Actions, US Shale Growth and the 2014 Oil Price Crash," IMF Working Papers 16/131, International Monetary Fund.

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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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