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Spillover effects of separated oil price shocks on regional financial stress amidst Russia–Ukraine and global geopolitical tensions: a novel GVAR approach

Author

Listed:
  • Faroque Ahmed

    (Ural Federal University
    University of Dhaka (Affiliated))

  • Kazi Sohag

    (Ural Federal University)

Abstract

The sophisticated nature of the global financial system is shaped by a refined web of cross-border connections and interdependencies. Using the Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) framework, we investigate the dynamic response of financial stress to counterfactual shocks arising from Russia, Ukraine and global geopolitical risks and separated oil price shocks affecting the G-20, EURO, Nordic, and ‘rest of Asia’ blocs. We analyse quarterly data from 1979-Q2 to 2023-Q3 for 33 developed and emerging economies. Empirical estimation based on counterfactual shock analysis reveals that a 1% positive shock to the Russian Geopolitical Risk (RGPR) amplifies the Financial Stress Index (FSI) of the 'rest of Asia' bloc most profoundly (8.1%), while the Nordic bloc is impacted the least (2.1%). The escalating impacts of Ukraine Geopolitical Risk (UGPR) and Global Geopolitical Risk (GGPR) on the FSI of different regions are relatively weaker than that of the RGPR in terms of intensity. Furthermore, Oil Price Risk Shock (ORS) emerges as the strongest source of risk spillovers to the regional FSI compared to Oil Price Demand Shocks (ODS) and Oil Price Supply Shocks (OSS). Notably, the financial market of the EURO bloc is identified as the most sensitive (8%) to oil price shocks, whereas the Nordic bloc demonstrates the highest resilience (0.015%). The study's implications are valuable for policymakers and market participants, providing insights for policy formulation and decision-making.

Suggested Citation

  • Faroque Ahmed & Kazi Sohag, 2025. "Spillover effects of separated oil price shocks on regional financial stress amidst Russia–Ukraine and global geopolitical tensions: a novel GVAR approach," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 15(3), pages 593-639, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:eurase:v:15:y:2025:i:3:d:10.1007_s40822-025-00329-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s40822-025-00329-8
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    2. Md. Monirul Islam & Faroque Ahmed & Abdulla Al Mahmud & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2025. "The role of rare earth and metallic mineral prices and sovereign inflation-linked bonds in AI-driven fintech industrial development amid the Russia–Ukraine conflict: A dynamic quantile analysis approach," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 11(1), pages 1-46, December.
    3. Wu, Ran & Li, Ming & Ma, Shenglin & Zeng, Hongjun, 2026. "Asymmetric market connectedness and systemic risk: A novel quantile and time-frequency evidence from brazilian energy firms," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    4. Roudari, Soheil & Ahmadian- Yazdi, Farzaneh & Chenarani, Hasan & Mensi, Walid, 2025. "Portfolio Management in the selected Middle East countries: New evidence of Iran-Israel War," MPRA Paper 126960, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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