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Fair weather or foul? the macroeconomic effects of El Niño

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  • Paul Cashin
  • Kamiar Mohaddes
  • Mehdi Raissi

Abstract

This paper employs a dynamic multi-country framework to analyze the international macroeconomic transmission of El Nio weather shocks. This framework comprises 21 country/region-specific models, estimated over the period 1979Q2 to 2013Q1, and accounts for not only direct exposures of countries to El Nio shocks but also indirect effects through third-markets. We contribute to the climate-macroeconomy literature by exploiting exogenous variation in El Nio weather events over time, and their impact on different regions cross-sectionally, to causatively identify the effects of El Nio shocks on growth, inflation, energy and non-fuel commodity prices. The results show that there are considerable heterogeneities in the responses of different countries to El Nio shocks. While Australia, Chile, Indonesia, India, Japan, New Zealand and South Africa face a short-lived fall in economic activity in response to an El Nio shock, for other countries (including the United States and European region), an El Nio occurrence has a growth-enhancing effect. Furthermore, most countries in our sample experience short-run inflationary pressures as both energy and non-fuel commodity prices increase. Given these findings, macroeconomic policy formulation should take into consideration the likelihood and effects of El Nio weather episodes.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Cashin & Kamiar Mohaddes & Mehdi Raissi, 2015. "Fair weather or foul? the macroeconomic effects of El Niño," Globalization Institute Working Papers 239, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddgw:239
    DOI: 10.24149/gwp239
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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