Does El Nino Affect Business Cycles
In this paper we test to see if the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon has an influence on national business cycles. If El Niño has any effect at all on business cycles and economic growth, one would expect it, at the very least, to affect small, undiversified economies highly dependent on agriculture and fishing. However, we find that while El Niño exhibits some influence on South Africa, Australia, and perhaps India, there is surprisingly little statistically significant effect on GDP growth or on price inflation in the other countries in our sample. Moreover, we see little significant El Niño effect on agricultural commodity prices.
Volume (Year): 33 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 (Winter)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (201) 684-7346
Web page: http://www.ramapo.edu/eea/journal.html
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Allan D. Brunner, 2002.
"El Niño and World Primary Commodity Prices: Warm Water or Hot Air?,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 84(1), pages 176-183, February.
- Allan D. Brunner, 2000. "El Nino and World Primary Commodity Prices: Warm Water or Hot Air?," IMF Working Papers 00/203, International Monetary Fund.
- Allan D. Brunner, 1998. "El Nino and world primary commodity prices: warm water or hot air?," International Finance Discussion Papers 608, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Richard M. Adams & Stephen Polasky, 1998. "The Value of El Ni�o Forecasts in the Management of Salmon: A Stochastic Dynamic Assessment," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(4), pages 765-777.
- Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. (ed.), 1991. "Long-Run Economic Relationships: Readings in Cointegration," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283393, March.
- Norrbin, Stefan C. & Schlagenhauf, Don E., 1988. "An inquiry into the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 43-70, July.
- Letson, David & McCullough, B.D., 2001. "Enso And Soybean Prices: Correlation Without Causality," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 33(03), December.
- Richard M. Adams & Kelly J. Bryant & Bruce A. Mccarl & David M. Legler & James O'Brien & Andrew Solow & Rodney Weiher, 1995. "Value Of Improved Long-Range Weather Information," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 13(3), pages 10-19, 07.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eej:eeconj:v:33:y:2007:i:1:p:21-42. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Victor Matheson, College of the Holy Cross)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.