Climate Forecasting And Emergency Policies Evidence Of Opportunities From Ceará, Brazil
We take small steps towards the approximation between economic analysis and the science of climate forecasting in the formulation of policies to alleviate the impact of climatic shocks. We do so by estimating the relationship between climate variables and corn production in Ceará, an important State in the Brazilian semi-arid. Using parametric and non-parametric regression models, we first estimate the relationship between contemporaneous sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for the Pacific and Atlantic oceans and the local rainfed corn market. Next, we investigate the forecasting potential of future corn production conditional on information on current SSTs. We find strong evidence that climate determinants are important in determining current and future corn production, a key indicator of the climatic stress to which a large number of small farmers are subject in the Brazilian semi-arid. Additionally, corn production in the region is negatively correlated with federal government transfers meant to mitigate the impact of local droughts. These resources have been subject to lethargic bureaucracies, corruption and economic inefficiencies in general. The observation and forecasting of corn production can be invaluable in the design of more efficient, expeditious and transparent policies to mitigate the effects of droughts in the region.
|Date of creation:||2004|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Secretaria da ANPEC Rua Prof Marcos Valdemar de Freitas Reis s/n Campus do Gragoatá Bloco F Niterói, RJ 24210-201 Brazil|
Phone: 55 21 3674 7952
Web page: http://www.anpec.org.br
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Postal: Secretaria da ANPEC Rua Prof Marcos Valdemar de Freitas Reis s/n Campus do Gragoatá Bloco F Niterói, RJ 24210-201 Brazil|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- James W. Mjelde & Harvey S.J. Hill & John F. Griffiths, 1998. "A Review of Current Evidence on Climate Forecasts and Their Economic Effects in Agriculture," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(5), pages 1089-1095.
- Allan D. Brunner, 2002.
"El Niño and World Primary Commodity Prices: Warm Water or Hot Air?,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 84(1), pages 176-183, February.
- Allan D. Brunner, 1998. "El Nino and world primary commodity prices: warm water or hot air?," International Finance Discussion Papers 608, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Allan D. Brunner, 2000. "El Nino and World Primary Commodity Prices; Warm Water or Hot Air?," IMF Working Papers 00/203, International Monetary Fund.
- Richard M. Adams & Stephen Polasky, 1998. "The Value of El Niño Forecasts in the Management of Salmon: A Stochastic Dynamic Assessment," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(4), pages 765-777.
- Datt, Gaurav & Hoogeveen, Hans, 2003. "El Nino or El Peso? Crisis, Poverty and Income Distribution in the Philippines," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 1103-1124, July.
- Datt, Gaurav & Hoogeveen, Hans, 2000. "El Nino or El Peso? Crisis, poverty, and income distribution in the Philippines," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2466, The World Bank.
- Richard M. Adams & Kelly J. Bryant & Bruce A. Mccarl & David M. Legler & James O'Brien & Andrew Solow & Rodney Weiher, 1995. "Value Of Improved Long-Range Weather Information," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 13(3), pages 10-19, 07.
- Troy Podbury & Terry C. Sheales & Intizar Hussain & Brian S. Fisher, 1998. "Use of El Niño Climate Forecasts in Australia," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(5), pages 1096-1101.
- John Luke Gallup & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 2000. "Agriculture, Climate, and Technology: Why are the Tropics Falling Behind?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(3), pages 731-737.
- Jeff King, 2001. "Trade Reform and the Corn Market: Prospects for the World Trade Organization Negotiations on Agriculture," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 23(1), pages 47-67. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:anp:en2004:118. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Rodrigo Zadra Armond)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.