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The Effects Of Exchange Rate Variability On Exports: Evidence From Uganda (1988 – 2001)

  • David Kihangire

    (Phd)

Using monthly data, this study investigates the effects of exchange rate variability on Uganda’s aggregate export growth under the floating exchange rate policy regime (1994-2001), benchmarked on the fixed exchange rate regime (1988-1993). The main research question it posits is: “What is the effect of exchange rate variability on Uganda’s exports?” Premised on risk-aversion, the study tests the main hypothesis that ‘Uganda’s exports are negatively and significantly correlated with exchange rate variability.’ Due to lack of pure I(0) or I(1) for all the series, and absence of endogeneity and simultaneous bias problems between export supply and export demand, the ARDL approach to cointegration and OLS are applied in the study. The results suggest support for the research hypothesis. The policy implication is that intervention targeting the minimisation of excessive volatility in the real effective exchange rate under the floating regime may contribute to supporting export sector growth, economic growth, and overall external macroeconomic stability in Uganda.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series International Trade with number 0505013.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: 21 May 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpit:0505013
Note: Type of Document - doc; pages: 40. The study was part of my Ph.D. research study at the University of Bradford.
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://econwpa.repec.org

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  1. Chowdhury, Abdur R, 1993. "Does Exchange Rate Volatility Depress Trade Flows? Evidence from Error-Correction Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 700-706, November.
  2. Khalid Sekkat, 2001. "On the aggregate impact of exchange rate variability on the EU trade," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/7344, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  3. Ritva Reinikka & Paul Collier, 2001. "Uganda's Recovery : The Role of Farms, Firms, and Government," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 13850.
  4. Grobar, Lisa Morris, 1993. "The effect of real exchange rate uncertainty on LDC manufactured exports," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 367-376, August.
  5. Asseery, A. & Peel, D. A., 1991. "The effects of exchange rate volatility on exports : Some new estimates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 173-177, October.
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  7. Robert A. Mundell, 1991. "Do Exchange Rates Work? Another View," IMF Working Papers 91/37, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Hans Singer, 1999. "Beyond terms of trade-convergence and divergence," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 911-916.
  9. Rose, Andrew K, 1999. "One Money, One Market: Estimating the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 2329, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Paul De Grauwe, 1988. "Exchange Rate Variability and the Slowdown in Growth of International Trade," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 35(1), pages 63-84, March.
  11. Lee, Jaewoo, 1999. "The Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Trade in Durables," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 189-201, May.
  12. John Barkoulas & Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan, 1998. "Exchange Rate Effects on the Volume and Variability of Trade Flows," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 405., Boston College Department of Economics, revised 12 Sep 2001.
  13. Doroodian, K., 1999. "Does exchange rate volatility deter international trade in developing countries?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 465-474.
  14. Cushman, David O., 1988. "U.S. bilateral trade flows and exchange risk during the floating period," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3-4), pages 317-330, May.
  15. Goldstein, Morris & Khan, Mohsin S, 1978. "The Supply and Demand for Exports: A Simultaneous Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(2), pages 275-86, May.
  16. Bleaney, Michael & Greenaway, David, 2001. "The impact of terms of trade and real exchange rate volatility on investment and growth in sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 491-500, August.
  17. David Sapsford & John-ren Chen, 1999. "The Prebisch-Singer thesis: a thesis for the new millennium? Introduction," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 843-849.
  18. Hooper, Peter & Kohlhagen, Steven W., 1978. "The effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the prices and volume of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 483-511, November.
  19. Andreas Savvides, 1992. "Unanticipated exchange rate variability and the growth of international trade," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 128(3), pages 446-463, September.
  20. McKenzie, Michael D, 1999. " The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on International Trade Flows," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 71-106, February.
  21. Arize, A. C., 1997. "Foreign trade and exchange-rate risk in the G-7 countries: Cointegration and error-correction models," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 95-112.
  22. Andrew Abbott & Adrian Darnell & Lynne Evans, 2001. "The influence of exchange rate variability on UK exports," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 47-49.
  23. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Ltaifa, Nabil, 1992. "Effects of exchange rate risk on exports: crosscountry analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 20(8), pages 1173-1181, August.
  24. Sauer, Christine & Bohara, Alok K, 2001. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: Regional Differences between Developing and Industrialized Countries," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 133-52, February.
  25. Khalid Sekkat, 2001. "On the Aggregate Impact of Exchange Rate Variability on EU Trade," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 2(1), pages 57-78, 02.
  26. Sukar, Abdul-Hamid & Hassan, Seid, 2001. "US exports and time-varying volatility of real exchange rate," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 109-119.
  27. Aristotelous, Kyriacos, 2001. "Exchange-rate volatility, exchange-rate regime, and trade volume: evidence from the UK-US export function (1889-1999)," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 87-94, July.
  28. Kenen, Peter B & Rodrik, Dani, 1986. "Measuring and Analyzing the Effects of Short-term Volatility in Real Exchange Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(2), pages 311-15, May.
  29. Ghura, Dhaneshwar & Grennes, Thomas J., 1993. "The real exchange rate and macroeconomic performance in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 155-174, October.
  30. M. Kabir Hassan & David R. Tufte, 1998. "Exchange rate volatility and aggregate export growth in Bangladesh," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(2), pages 189-201, February.
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