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Impact of exchange rate volatility on Indonesia's trade performance in the 1990s

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  • Siregar, Reza
  • Rajan, Ramkishen S.

Abstract

Whether a real devaluation ultimately proves to be expansionary or contractionary depends on whether the boost given to the exportables sector offsets any possible output-depressing effects that may accompany the expenditure-switching policy. Failure of the exportables sector to adequately respond to the price incentives is a virtual guarantee that devaluation will be contractionary. This appears to have been the experience of Indonesia, the country worst hit by the crisis of 1997-98. This paper explores whether the increased exchange rate variability of the Indonesian rupiah post 1997 may have been a cause for the countryÂ’s poor export performance.
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  • Siregar, Reza & Rajan, Ramkishen S., 2004. "Impact of exchange rate volatility on Indonesia's trade performance in the 1990s," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 218-240, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jjieco:v:18:y:2004:i:2:p:218-240
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    Cited by:

    1. Naseem, N.A.M & Tan, Hui-Boon & Hamizah, M.S, 2008. "Exchange Rate Misalignment, Volatility and Import Flows in Malaysia," MPRA Paper 41571, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. George Hondroyiannis & P.A.V.B. Swamy & George Tavlas & Michael Ulan, 2008. "Some Further Evidence on Exchange-Rate Volatility and Exports," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 144(1), pages 151-180, April.
    3. Reza Siregar & Victor Pontines & Nurulhuda Mohd Hussain, 2010. "The US Sub-prime Crises and Extreme Exchange Market Pressures in Asia," Staff Papers, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre, number sp75, April.
    4. Balázs Égert & Amalia Morales-Zumaquero, 2005. "Exchange Rate Regimes, Foreign Exchange Volatility and Export Performance in Central and Eastern Europe," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 76-97.
    5. Prasertnukul, Weera & Kim, Donghun & Kakinaka, Makoto, 2010. "Exchange rates, price levels, and inflation targeting: Evidence from Asian countries," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 173-182, August.
    6. Reza Siregar & Victor Pontines, 2005. "Incidences of Speculative Attacks on Rupiah During The Pre- and Post-1997 Financial Crisis," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2005-04, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
    7. Balogun, Emmanuel Dele, 2007. "Exchange rate policy and export performance of WAMZ countries," MPRA Paper 6233, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. V Polodoo & B Seetanah & Sannassee R. V, 2016. "Exchange rate volatility and manufacturing trade: Evidence from Africa," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 50(5), pages 241-256.
    9. Komain Jiranyakul, 2013. "Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Import Demand of Thailand," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(10), pages 1269-1280, October.
    10. Arief Bustaman & Kankesu Jayanthakumaran, 2006. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Indonesia’s Exports to the USA: An Application of ARDL Bounds Testing Procedure," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 200610, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Dec 2006.
    11. Rudy Rahmaddi & Masaru Ichihashi, 2011. "How Do Foreign and Domestic Demand Affect Exports Performance? An Econometric Investigation of Indonesia's Exports," IDEC DP2 Series 1-4, Hiroshima University, Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation (IDEC), revised Jan 2012.
    12. Veysel Avsar & Kemal Turkcan, 2013. "Exchange Rate Volatility and U.S. Auto-Industry Exports: A Panel Cointegration Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 3(4), pages 772-787.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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