IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/iecepo/v17y2020i1d10.1007_s10368-019-00455-0.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exchange-rate volatility and commodity trade between the U.S. and Germany: asymmetry analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee

    (The University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee)

  • Ridha Nouira

    (Monastir University)

  • Sami Saafi

    (Monastir University)

Abstract

Recent introduction of asymmetric cointegration and error-correction modeling has revealed that failure to find a significant link between two variables could be due to ignoring the nonlinear adjustment of the exogenous variable. We assess the short-run and long-run effects of dollar-euro volatility on the trade flows of 67 2-digit industries that trade between the U.S. and Germany. When a linear model was estimated, we found short-run effects of volatility on 18 U.S. exporting and 19 U.S. importing industries. Short-run effects lasted into the long run in 10 and 22 industries, respectively. The numbers were much higher when a nonlinear model was estimated for each industry. Short-run asymmetric effects were discovered in 59 industries which lasted into long-run asymmetric effects in 19 U.S. exporting and 32 U.S. importing industries. Both small as well as large industries were affected.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Ridha Nouira & Sami Saafi, 2020. "Exchange-rate volatility and commodity trade between the U.S. and Germany: asymmetry analysis," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 67-124, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:iecepo:v:17:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1007_s10368-019-00455-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s10368-019-00455-0
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10368-019-00455-0
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10368-019-00455-0?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Scott W. Hegerty, 2009. "The Effects of Exchange-Rate Volatility on Commodity Trade between the United States and Mexico," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 75(4), pages 1019-1044, April.
    2. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Masoomeh Hajilee, 2013. "Impact of exchange-rate variability on commodity trade between U.S. and Germany," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 40(2), pages 287-324, May.
    3. Muhammad Aftab & Karim Bux Shah Syed & Naveed Akhter Katper, 2017. "Exchange-rate volatility and Malaysian-Thai bilateral industry trade flows," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 44(1), pages 99-114, January.
    4. Hooper, Peter & Kohlhagen, Steven W., 1978. "The effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the prices and volume of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 483-511, November.
    5. Luiz Lima & Claudio Foffano Vasconcelos & Jose Simão & Helder Ferreira de Mendonça, 2016. "The quantitative easing effect on the stock market of the USA, the UK and Japan," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 43(6), pages 1006-1021, November.
    6. Ansgar Belke & Dominik Kronen, 2016. "Exchange rate bands of inaction and play-hysteresis in Greek exports to the Euro Area, the US and Turkey: sectoral evidence," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 43(2), pages 349-390, May.
    7. Klein, Michael W., 1990. "Sectoral effects of exchange rate volatility on United States exports," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 299-308, September.
    8. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Hadise Fariditavana, 2016. "Nonlinear ARDL Approach and the J-Curve Phenomenon," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 51-70, February.
    9. Cushman, David O., 1983. "The effects of real exchange rate risk on international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1-2), pages 45-63, August.
    10. Nazif Durmaz, 2015. "Industry levelJ-curve in Turkey," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 42(4), pages 689-706, September.
    11. Chowdhury, Abdur R, 1993. "Does Exchange Rate Volatility Depress Trade Flows? Evidence from Error-Correction Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 700-706, November.
    12. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    13. Lee, Jaewoo, 1999. "The Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Trade in Durables," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 189-201, May.
    14. Arize, Augustine C., 1998. "The long-run relationship between import flows and real exchange-rate volatility: The experience of eight European economies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 417-435.
    15. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Aftab, Muhammad, 2017. "On the asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on trade flows: New evidence from US-Malaysia trade at the industry level," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 86-103.
    16. Matthieu Bussiere, 2013. "Exchange Rate Pass-through to Trade Prices: The Role of Nonlinearities and Asymmetries," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(5), pages 731-758, October.
    17. Apergis, Nicholas & Miller, Stephen M., 2006. "Consumption asymmetry and the stock market: Empirical evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 93(3), pages 337-342, December.
    18. Paul De Grauwe, 1988. "Exchange Rate Variability and the Slowdown in Growth of International Trade," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 35(1), pages 63-84, March.
    19. Kroner, Kenneth F. & Lastrapes, William D., 1993. "The impact of exchange rate volatility on international trade: Reduced form estimates using the GARCH-in-mean model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 298-318, June.
    20. McKenzie, Michael D. & Brooks, Robert D., 1997. "The impact of exchange rate volatility on German-US trade flows," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 73-87, April.
    21. A. C. Arize & S. S. Shwiff, 1998. "Does exchange-rate volatility affect import flows in G-7 Countries? Evidence from cointegration models," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(10), pages 1269-1276.
    22. Peree, Eric & Steinherr, Alfred, 1989. "Exchange rate uncertainty and foreign trade," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1241-1264, July.
    23. Kenen, Peter B & Rodrik, Dani, 1986. "Measuring and Analyzing the Effects of Short-term Volatility in Real Exchange Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(2), pages 311-315, May.
    24. Ansgar Belke & Matthias Göcke & Martin Günther, 2013. "Exchange Rate Bands Of Inaction And Play-Hysteresis In German Exports—Sectoral Evidence For Some Oecd Destinations," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(1), pages 152-179, February.
    25. Ferda Halicioglu, 2007. "The J‐curve dynamics of Turkish bilateral trade: a cointegration approach," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 34(2), pages 103-119, May.
    26. Hamid Baghestani & Samer Kherfi, 2015. "An error-correction modeling of US consumer spending: are there asymmetries?," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 42(6), pages 1078-1094, November.
    27. Salah Nusair, 2012. "Nonlinear adjustment of Asian real exchange rates," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 221-246, August.
    28. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Scott W. Hegerty, 2007. "Exchange rate volatility and trade flows: a review article," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 34(3), pages 211-255, August.
    29. Ansgar H. Belke & Matthias Göcke & Laura Werner, 2015. "Exchange Rate Volatility and other Determinants of Hysteresis in Exports – Empirical Evidence for the Euro Area," Review of Economic Analysis, Digital Initiatives at the University of Waterloo Library, vol. 7(1), pages 24-53, June.
    30. Guedae Cho & Ian M. Sheldon & Steve McCorriston, 2002. "Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Agricultural Trade," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 84(4), pages 931-942.
    31. Abdulrahman Al-Shayeb & Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2016. "Trade openness and economic development in the UAE: an asymmetric approach," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 43(4), pages 587-597, September.
    32. Ansgar Belke & Matthias Göcke, 2005. "Real Options Effects on Employment: Does Exchange Rate Uncertainty Matter for Aggregation?," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 6(2), pages 185-203, May.
    33. Asseery, A. & Peel, D. A., 1991. "The effects of exchange rate volatility on exports : Some new estimates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 173-177, October.
    34. Koray, Faik & Lastrapes, William D, 1989. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility and U.S. Bilateral Trade: A VAR Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(4), pages 708-712, November.
    35. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Zohre Ardalani, 2006. "Exchange Rate Sensitivity of U.S. Trade Flows: Evidence from Industry Data," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 72(3), pages 542-559, January.
    36. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, 1986. "Determinants of international trade flows : The Case of Developing Countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 107-123.
    37. Arize, Augustine C. & Malindretos, John & Igwe, Emmanuel U., 2017. "Do exchange rate changes improve the trade balance: An asymmetric nonlinear cointegration approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 313-326.
    38. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Muhammad Aftab, 2017. "Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate Changes and the J-curve: New Evidence from 61 Malaysia–Thailand Industries," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 30-46, November.
    39. Keith E. Maskus, 1986. "Exchange rate risk and U.S. trade: a sectoral analysis," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 71(Mar), pages 16-28.
    40. Bailey, Martin J. & Tavlas, George S. & Ulan, Michael, 1987. "The impact of exchange-rate volatility on export growth: Some theoretical considerations and empirical results," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 225-243.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sabrine Ferjani & Sami Saafi & Ridha Nouira & Christophe Rault, 2022. "The Impacts of the Dollar-Renminbi Exchange Rate Misalignment on the China-United States Commodity Trade: An Asymmetric Analysis," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 20(3), pages 507-554, September.
    2. Mingwen Chen & RongJia Chen & Shiyong Zheng & Biqing Li, 2023. "Green Investment, Technological Progress, and Green Industrial Development: Implications for Sustainable Development," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-12, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Toan Luu Duc Huynh & Muhammad Ali Nasir, 2021. "On the asymmetric effects of exchange‐rate volatility on trade flows: Evidence from US–UK Commodity Trade," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(1), pages 51-102, February.
    2. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Huseyin Karamelikli, 2022. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Commodity Trade between U.K. and China: An Asymmetric Analysis," Chinese Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(1), pages 41-65, January.
    3. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Ridha Nouira, 2020. "On the impact of exchange rate volatility on Tunisia’s trade with 16 partners: an asymmetry analysis," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 53(3), pages 357-378, August.
    4. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Huseyin Karamelikli, 2019. "Exchange rate volatility and Japan–U.S. commodity trade: An asymmetry analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(11), pages 3287-3318, November.
    5. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Augustine C. Arize, 2020. "On the Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Trade Flows: Evidence from Africa," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(4), pages 913-939, March.
    6. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Sujata Saha, 2021. "On the asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on the trade flows of India with each of its fourteen partners," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 66-85, January.
    7. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Hanafiah Harvey, 2022. "The U.S.‐Canadian trade and exchange rate uncertainty: Asymmetric evidence from commodity trade," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(3), pages 841-866, March.
    8. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Parveen Akhtar & Sana Ullah & Muhammad Tariq Majeed, 2020. "Exchange Rate Risk and Uncertainty and Trade Flows: Asymmetric Evidence from Asia," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-16, June.
    9. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Hanafiah Harvey, 2021. "Exchange rate volatility and commodity trade between United States and Australia: An asymmetric analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(6), pages 1509-1700, June.
    10. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Hanafiah Harvey, 2021. "Are the effects of exchange‐rate volatility on commodity trade between the U.S. and Mexico symmetric or asymmetric?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2998-3027, April.
    11. Xu, Jia & Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Karamelikli, Huseyin, 2022. "On the asymmetric effects of exchange rate uncertainty on China’s bilateral trade with its major partners," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 653-669.
    12. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Sujata Saha, 2020. "Exchange rate risk and commodity trade between U.S. and India: an asymmetry analysis," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(4), pages 675-695, October.
    13. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Nazif Durmaz, 2021. "Exchange rate volatility and Turkey–EU commodity trade: an asymmetry analysis," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 48(2), pages 429-482, May.
    14. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Kanitpong, Tatchawan, 2019. "Thailand-China commodity trade and exchange rate uncertainty: Asymmetric evidence from 45 industries," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    15. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Amirhossein Mohammadian, 2019. "Who benefits from euro depreciation in the euro zone?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 46(3), pages 577-595, August.
    16. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Huseyin Karamelikli & Farhang Niroomand, 2023. "Asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on trade flows: evidence from G7," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 47(1), pages 38-62, March.
    17. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Huseyin Karamelikli, 2021. "The Turkey-US commodity trade and the asymmetric J-curve," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 943-973, November.
    18. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Ahmed Usman & Sana Ullah, 2023. "Asymmetric Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Commodity Trade Between Pakistan and China," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 24(3), pages 510-534, June.
    19. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Ridha Nouira, 2021. "U.S. – Italy commodity trade and the J-curve: new evidence from asymmetry analysis," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 73-103, February.
    20. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Zohre Ardalani & Marzieh Bolhasani, 2010. "Exchange rate volatility and US commodity trade with the rest of the world," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(5), pages 511-532.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    U.S.-German trade; 67 industries; Dollar-euro volatility; Asymmetry;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:iecepo:v:17:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1007_s10368-019-00455-0. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.