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Exchange Rate Bands of Inaction and Play-Hysteresis in German Exports: Sectoral Evidence for Some OECD Destinations


  • Ansgar Belke
  • Matthias Göcke
  • Martin Günther


A non-linear model is applied where suddenly strong spurts of exports occur when changes of the exchange rate go beyond a zone of inaction. We call the latter a "play" area - analogous to mechanical play and implement an algorithm describing path-dependent playhysteresis into a regression framework. The hysteretic impact of real exchange rates on German exports is then estimated based on quarterly data from 1995Q1 to 2010Q3. For some of the main export partners of Germany outside the euro area and some of the most important tradable sectors we find significant hysteretic effects for a part of the German exports.

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  • Ansgar Belke & Matthias Göcke & Martin Günther, 2012. "Exchange Rate Bands of Inaction and Play-Hysteresis in German Exports: Sectoral Evidence for Some OECD Destinations," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1203, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1203

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Darby, Julia, et al, 1999. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on the Level of Investment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(454), pages 55-67, March.
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    10. Kannebley Jr., Sergio, 2008. "Tests for the hysteresis hypothesis in Brazilian industrialized exports: A threshold cointegration analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 171-190, March.
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    13. Ansgar Belke & Matthias Göcke, 2005. "Real Options Effects on Employment: Does Exchange Rate Uncertainty Matter for Aggregation?," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 6(2), pages 185-203, May.
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    More about this item


    exchange rate movements; play-hysteresis; modelling techniques; switching/spline regression; export demand;

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

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