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Exchange Rate Bands of Inaction and Play-Hysteresis in German Exports – Sectoral Evidence for Some OECD Destinations

  • Ansgar Belke

    ()

  • Matthias Göcke
  • Martin Guenther

A non-linear model is applied where suddenly strong spurts of exports occur when changes of the exchange rate go beyond a zone of inaction. We call the latter a “play” area – analogous to mechanical play and implement an algorithm describing path-dependent play-hysteresis into a regression framework. The hysteretic impact of real exchange rates on German exports is then estimated based on quarterly data from 1995Q1 to 2010Q3. For some of the main export partners of Germany outside the euro area and some of the most important tradable sectors we fi nd significant hysteretic effects for a part of the German exports.

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Paper provided by Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen in its series Ruhr Economic Papers with number 0327.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rwi:repape:0327
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  1. Kannebley Jr., Sergio, 2008. "Tests for the hysteresis hypothesis in Brazilian industrialized exports: A threshold cointegration analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 171-190, March.
  2. Kerstin Stahn, 2007. "Has the Export Pricing Behaviour of German Enterprises Changed? Empirical Evidence from German Sectoral Export Prices," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 227(3), pages 295-329, June.
  3. Campa, Jose M., 2000. "Exchange rates and trade: How important is hysteresis in trade?," IESE Research Papers D/427, IESE Business School.
  4. I. Agur, 2003. "Trade-volume hysteresis: an investigation using aggregate data," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 740, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  5. Paul R. Krugman & Richard E. Baldwin, 1987. "The Persistence of the U.S. Trade Deficit," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 18(1), pages 1-56.
  6. Darby, Julia & Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Ireland, Jonathan & Piscitelli, Laura, 1998. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on the Level of Investment," CEPR Discussion Papers 1896, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Godart, Olivier N. & Görg, Holger & Görlich, Dennis, 2009. "Back to normal? The future of global production networks after the crisis," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 32840, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  8. Parsley, David C & Wei, Shang-Jin, 1993. "Insignificant and Inconsequential Hysteresis: The Case of U.S. Bilateral Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 606-13, November.
  9. Richard Baldwin, 1989. "Sunk-Cost Hysteresis," NBER Working Papers 2911, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Belke, Ansgar & Göcke, Matthias, 2004. "Real Options Effects on Employment: Does Exchange Rate Uncertainty Matter for Aggregation?," IZA Discussion Papers 1126, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  11. Andrew B. Bernard & Joachim Wagner, 1998. "Export Entry and Exit by German Firms," NBER Working Papers 6538, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Cross, Rod, 1994. "The Macroeconomic Consequences of Discontinuous Adjustment: Selective Memory of Non-dominated Extrema," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 41(2), pages 212-21, May.
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