IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/rwirep/468.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Hysteresis Effects in Economics – Different Methods for Describing Economic Path-dependence

Author

Listed:
  • Belke, Ansgar
  • Göcke, Matthias
  • Werner, Laura

Abstract

Relations between economic variables are often characterized by a situation where initial conditions and the past realizations of economic variables matter. I.e. past (transient) exogenous disturbances and past states of the economic system do have an influence on the current economic relations. Typical examples are the dynamics of (un)employment in business cycles and the dynamics of the nexus of exchange rate and exports. Since the standard characteristics of hysteresis apply - i.e. permanent effects of a temporary stimulus, resulting in path-dependent multiple equilibria - these economic phenomena are correctly titled as 'hysteresis'. Empirical research in economics is using different methods in order to capture path-dependent effects. First econometric approaches tried to describe these effects by simple timeseries processes with unit- (or zero)-root dynamics. However, since unit-root-dynamics are not related to genuine multiple equilibria but on the order of integration of the time series, these first attempts were expanded by more sophisticated time-series models integrating structural breaks, threshold-cointegration or non-linear autoregressive distributed lag-models. Another branch of empirical studies tries to keep closer to the original concept of the macroloop, trying to apply an explicit Mayergoyz/ Preisach aggregation procedure for heterogeneous firms - if microeconomic information is available based on panel-data - or by using simple algorithms analogous to mechanical-play in order to apply simple OLS-regression methods on a filtered/transformed input-output relation. In this paper, we give an overview of the implementation of hysteresis in economics, with an emphasis on two aspects: (1) the differentiation between micro- and macroeconomic hysteresis including an outline of an adequate aggregation procedure, and (2) different methods applied in econometrics in order to capture economic path-dependency empirically.

Suggested Citation

  • Belke, Ansgar & Göcke, Matthias & Werner, Laura, 2014. "Hysteresis Effects in Economics – Different Methods for Describing Economic Path-dependence," Ruhr Economic Papers 468, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:rwirep:468
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/88913/1/775978604.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Balke, Nathan S & Fomby, Thomas B, 1997. "Threshold Cointegration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(3), pages 627-645, August.
    2. Paulo R. Mota & José Varejão & Paulo B. Vasconcelos, 2012. "Hysteresis In The Dynamics Of Employment," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(4), pages 661-692, November.
    3. Richard Baldwin, 1989. "Sunk-Cost Hysteresis," NBER Working Papers 2911, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Franz, Wolfgang, 1990. "Hysteresis in Economic Relationships: An Overview," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 109-125.
    5. Laura Piscitelli & Michael Grinfeld & Harbir Lamba & Rod Cross, 1999. "On entry and exit in response to aggregate shocks," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(9), pages 569-572.
    6. Richard Baldwin & Richard Lyons, 1989. "Exchange Rate Hysteresis: The Real Effects of Large vs Small Policy Misalignments," NBER Working Papers 2828, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Hughes Hallett, A. J. & Piscitelli, Laura, 2002. "Testing for hysteresis against nonlinear alternatives," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 303-327, December.
    8. Froot, Kenneth A & Klemperer, Paul D, 1989. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through When Market Share Matters," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 637-654, September.
    9. Paulo Mota & Paulo Vasconcelos, 2012. "Nonconvex adjustment costs, hysteresis, and the macrodynamics of employment," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 93-112.
    10. Samuel Bentolila & Giuseppe Bertola, 1990. "Firing Costs and Labour Demand: How Bad is Eurosclerosis?," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(3), pages 381-402.
    11. Richard Baldwin & Paul Krugman, 1989. "Persistent Trade Effects of Large Exchange Rate Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 104(4), pages 635-654.
    12. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Volume 1, pages 15-90, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Dixit, Avinash K, 1989. "Entry and Exit Decisions under Uncertainty," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 620-638, June.
    14. Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. (ed.), 1991. "Long-Run Economic Relationships: Readings in Cointegration," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283393.
    15. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    16. Pindyck, Robert S, 1991. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 1110-1148, September.
    17. Delgado, Francisco A., 1991. "Hysteresis, menu costs, and pricing with random exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 461-484, December.
    18. Fedoseeva Svetlana, 2013. "(A)symmetry, (Non)linearity and Hysteresis of Pricing-To-Market: Evidence from German Sugar Confectionery Exports," Journal of Agricultural & Food Industrial Organization, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-17, January.
    19. Piscitelli, Laura & Cross, Rod & Grinfeld, Michael & Lamba, Harbir, 2000. "A Test for Strong Hysteresis," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 15(1-2), pages 59-78, April.
    20. Pindyck, Robert S, 1988. "Irreversible Investment, Capacity Choice, and the Value of the Firm," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(5), pages 969-985, December.
    21. Cross, Rod, 1993. "On the Foundations of Hysteresis in Economic Systems," Economics and Philosophy, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(1), pages 53-74, April.
    22. Amable, Bruno & Henry, J. & Lordon, F. & Topol, R., 1992. "Hysteresis : what it is and what it is not ?," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9216, CEPREMAP.
    23. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    24. Jeffrey Sachs, 1986. "High Unemployment in Europe: Diagnosis and Policy Implications," NBER Working Papers 1830, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Cross, Rod, 1994. "The Macroeconomic Consequences of Discontinuous Adjustment: Selective Memory of Non-dominated Extrema," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 41(2), pages 212-221, May.
    26. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    27. Astrid Ayala & Juncal Cuñado & Luis Albériko Gil-Alana, 2012. "Unemployment hysteresis: empirical evidence for Latin America," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 15, pages 213-233, November.
    28. Amable, Bruno & Henry, Jerome & Lordon, Frederic & Topol, Richard, 1994. "Strong hysteresis versus zero-root dynamics," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 43-47.
    29. Kannebley Jr., Sergio, 2008. "Tests for the hysteresis hypothesis in Brazilian industrialized exports: A threshold cointegration analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 171-190, March.
    30. Baldwin, Richard, 1990. "Hysteresis in Trade," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 127-142.
    31. Lindbeck, Assar & Snower, Dennis J, 1986. "Wage Setting, Unemployment, and Insider-Outsider Relations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(2), pages 235-239, May.
    32. Belke, Ansgar & Gocke, Matthias, 1999. "A Simple Model of Hysteresis in Employment under Exchange Rate Uncertainty," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 46(3), pages 260-286, August.
    33. De-Chih Liu & Chin-Hwa Sun & Pei-Chien Lin, 2012. "Hysteresis Hypothesis In Unemployment And Labour Force Participation Rates: Evidence From Australian States And Territories," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(2), pages 71-84, June.
    34. Ansgar Belke & Matthias Göcke, 2005. "Real Options Effects on Employment: Does Exchange Rate Uncertainty Matter for Aggregation?," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 6(2), pages 185-203, May.
    35. Verheyen, Florian, 2013. "Exchange rate nonlinearities in EMU exports to the US," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 66-76.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Annie Tubadji & Peter Nijkamp & Vassilis Angelis, 2016. "Cultural hysteresis, entrepreneurship and economic crisisAn analysis of buffers to unemployment after economic shocks," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 9(1), pages 103-136.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    play-hysteresis; modelling techniques; switching/spline regression; path-dependence;

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:rwirep:468. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/rwiesde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.