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Interest Rate Hysteresis in Macroeconomic Investment under Uncertainty

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  • Belke, Ansgar
  • Göcke, Matthias

Abstract

The interest rate is generally considered as an important driver of macroeconomic investment. As an innovation, this paper derives the exact shape of the “hysteretic” impact of changes in the interest rate on macroeconomic investment under the scenarios of both certainty and uncertainty. We capture the direct interest rate-hysteresis on the investments and the capital stock and, explicitly, of stochastic changes on the interest rate-investment hysteresis. Starting with hysteresis effects on a microeconomic level of a single firm, we apply an explicit aggregation procedure to derive the interest rate hysteresis effects on a macroeconomic level. Based on our simple model we are able to obtain some conclusions about the efficacy of a central bank’s interest rate policy, e.g. in times of low or even zero interest rates and high uncertainty, in terms of stimulating macroeconomic investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Belke, Ansgar & Göcke, Matthias, 2019. "Interest Rate Hysteresis in Macroeconomic Investment under Uncertainty," GLO Discussion Paper Series 377, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:glodps:377
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    Cited by:

    1. Belke, Ansgar & Frenzel Baudisch, Coletta & Göcke, Matthias, 2020. "Interest rate bands of inaction and play-hysteresis in domestic investment – Evidence for the Euro Area," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 19-39.
    2. Belke, Ansgar & Klose, Jens, 2020. "Equilibrium real interest rates and the financial cycle: Empirical evidence for Euro area member countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 357-366.
    3. Luigi Bonatti & Andrea Fracasso & Roberto Tamborini, 2020. "COVID-19 and the Future of Quantitative Easing in the Euro Area: Three Scenarios with a Trilemma," DEM Working Papers 2020/11, Department of Economics and Management.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forward guidance; interest rate; investment; Mayergoyz-Preisach model; monetary policy; path dependence; non-ideal relay; sunk-cost hysteresis; uncertainty; zero lower bound;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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