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The effect of mean reversion on entry and exit decisions under uncertainty

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  • Tsekrekos, Andrianos E.

Abstract

Many economic variables of interest exhibit a tendency to revert to predictable long-run levels. However, mean reverting processes are rarely used in investment models in the literature. In most models, geometric Brownian motion processes are used for tractability. In this paper, a firm's entry and exit decisions when the output equilibrium price follows an exogenous mean reverting process are examined, and then compared to the decisions of the firm under the usually employed assumption of lognormally distributed output price, presented in Dixit (1989a). By extending previous work by Sarkar (2003) to account for costly reversibility, we show that mean reversion has a significant effect, not only on firm-specific entry and exit decisions, but also on the balance of entering and exiting firms in an industry/market. Thus it would be erroneous to use the more tractable geometric Brownian motion process as an approximation for a mean-reverting process in models and investigations of aggregate industry investment.

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  • Tsekrekos, Andrianos E., 2010. "The effect of mean reversion on entry and exit decisions under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 725-742, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:34:y:2010:i:4:p:725-742
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    6. Dias, José Carlos & Shackleton, Mark B., 2011. "Hysteresis effects under CIR interest rates," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 211(3), pages 594-600, June.
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    8. Ali Al-Aradi & Alvaro Cartea & Sebastian Jaimungal, 2018. "Technical Uncertainty in Real Options with Learning," Papers 1803.05831, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2018.
    9. Wong, Kit Pong, 2011. "Progressive taxation and the intensity and timing of investment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 100-108.
    10. Juri Hinz & Tanya Tarnopolskaya & Jeremy Yee, 2020. "Efficient algorithms of pathwise dynamic programming for decision optimization in mining operations," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 286(1), pages 583-615, March.
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    13. Boonman, H.J., 2014. "Strategic real options : Capacity optimization and demand structures," Other publications TiSEM 2c1d43fb-e8d5-4f50-9bbf-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    14. Kiyoshi Suzuki, 2021. "Infinite-Horizon Optimal Switching Regions for a Pair-Trading Strategy with Quadratic Risk Aversion Considering Simultaneous Multiple Switchings: A Viscosity Solution Approach," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 46(1), pages 336-360, February.
    15. Dumortier, Jerome Robert Florian, 2011. "The impact of forest offset credits under a stochastic carbon price on agriculture using a rational expectations and real options framework," ISU General Staff Papers 201101010800001160, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
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