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The effect of mean reversion on entry and exit decisions under uncertainty

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  • Tsekrekos, Andrianos E.

Abstract

Many economic variables of interest exhibit a tendency to revert to predictable long-run levels. However, mean reverting processes are rarely used in investment models in the literature. In most models, geometric Brownian motion processes are used for tractability. In this paper, a firm's entry and exit decisions when the output equilibrium price follows an exogenous mean reverting process are examined, and then compared to the decisions of the firm under the usually employed assumption of lognormally distributed output price, presented in Dixit (1989a). By extending previous work by Sarkar (2003) to account for costly reversibility, we show that mean reversion has a significant effect, not only on firm-specific entry and exit decisions, but also on the balance of entering and exiting firms in an industry/market. Thus it would be erroneous to use the more tractable geometric Brownian motion process as an approximation for a mean-reverting process in models and investigations of aggregate industry investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Tsekrekos, Andrianos E., 2010. "The effect of mean reversion on entry and exit decisions under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 725-742, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:34:y:2010:i:4:p:725-742
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Wong, Kit Pong & Yi, Long, 2013. "Irreversibility, mean reversion, and investment timing," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 770-775.
    2. repec:eee:ejores:v:262:y:2017:i:2:p:660-672 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Wong, Kit Pong, 2011. "Progressive taxation and the intensity and timing of investment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 100-108, January.
    4. Glover, Kristoffer J. & Hambusch, Gerhard, 2016. "Leveraged investments and agency conflicts when cash flows are mean reverting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 1-21.
    5. Boonman, H.J., 2014. "Strategic real options : Capacity optimization and demand structures," Other publications TiSEM 2c1d43fb-e8d5-4f50-9bbf-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    6. Andrianos Tsekrekos, 2013. "Irreversible exit decisions under mean-reverting uncertainty," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 110(1), pages 5-23, September.
    7. repec:spr:joptap:v:172:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s10957-016-1026-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Dumortier, Jerome Robert Florian, 2011. "The impact of forest offset credits under a stochastic carbon price on agriculture using a rational expectations and real options framework," ISU General Staff Papers 201101010800001160, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    9. Dias, José Carlos & Shackleton, Mark B., 2011. "Hysteresis effects under CIR interest rates," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 211(3), pages 594-600, June.
    10. repec:eee:eneeco:v:67:y:2017:i:c:p:300-314 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Davis, Graham A. & Cairns, Robert D., 2012. "Good timing: The economics of optimal stopping," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 255-265.
    12. Dumortier, Jerome & Kauffman, Nathan & Hayes, Dermot J., 2017. "Production and spatial distribution of switchgrass and miscanthus in the United States under uncertainty and sunk cost," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 300-314.
    13. Ali Al-Aradi & Alvaro Cartea & Sebastian Jaimungal, 2018. "Technical Uncertainty in Real Options with Learning," Papers 1803.05831, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2018.
    14. Huberts, Nick, 2017. "Strategic investment in innovation : Capacity and timing decisions under uncertainty," Other publications TiSEM 6473e1df-9b8d-49ae-99f8-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    15. Wong, Kit Pong, 2011. "Progressive taxation and the intensity and timing of investment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 100-108.

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