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The Effect of Capital Controls on Interest Rate Differentials

  • Herrera, L.O.
  • Valdes, R.

In this paper we present a model of international interest rate arbitrage under conditions of entry and exit costs to and from the domestic capital market. We seek to measure the maximum potential effect of capital controls, such as non-interest paying reserve requirements, on interest rate differentials. We quantify the effect of such taxes using a dynamic optimization model with uncertainty and transaction costs. An optimal (S,s) rule gives the limits for interest rate differentials that trigger massive capital inflows and outflows. We also calculate maximum sustainable interest rate differentials for various maturities and study the effect of parameter changes. Using parameters estimated for the Chilean economy, the model shows that the effect of capital controls on interest rate differentials is considerably smaller than what static calculations suggest.

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Paper provided by Cambridge - Risk, Information & Quantity Signals in its series Papers with number 50.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: 1999
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fth:cambri:50
Contact details of provider: Postal: UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE, RESEARCH PROJECT ON RISK, INFORMATION AND QUANTITY SIGNALS IN ECONOMICS(E.S.R.C.), DEPARTMENT OF APPLIED ECONOMICS, SIDGWICK AV. CAMBRIDGE CB3 9DEDE U.K..
Web page: http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/
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  1. Salvador Valdés-Prieto & Marcelo Soto, 1998. "The Effectiveness of Capital Controls: Theory and Evidence from Chile," Empirica, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 133-164, January.
  2. Dixit, A., 1988. "Entry And Exit Decisions Under Uncertainty," Papers 91, Princeton, Department of Economics - Financial Research Center.
  3. Luis Oscar Herrera & Rodrigo Valdés, 1999. "The Effect of Capital Controls on Interest Rate Differentials," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 50, Central Bank of Chile.
  4. Eliana Cardoso & Ilan Goldfajn, 1998. "Capital Flows to Brazil: The Endogeneity of Capital Controls," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 161-202, March.
  5. Bentolila, Samuel & Bertola, Giuseppe, 1990. "Firing Costs and Labour Demand: How Bad Is Eurosclerosis?," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(3), pages 381-402, July.
  6. Cardenas, Mauricio & Barrera, Felipe, 1997. "On the effectiveness of capital controls: The experience of Colombia during the 1990s," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 27-57, October.
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