Firing Costs, Misallocation, and Aggregate Productivity

We assess the quantitative impact of firing costs on aggregate total factor productivity (TFP) in a dynamic general-equilibrium framework where the distribution of establishment-level productivity is not invariant to the policy. We show that firing costs not only generate static misallocation, but also a worsening of the productivity distribution substantially contributing to large aggregate TFP losses. In a calibrated version of the model, firing costs equivalent to 5 years' wages imply a drop in TFP of more than 20 percent. Consistent with the existing literature on firing costs, static misallocation only generates a small drop in TFP, accounting for around 20 percent of the total loss, whereas the remaining 80 percent arises from the endogenous change in the productivity distribution.