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Pricing currency risk : facts and puzzles from currency boards

Author

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  • Schmukler, Sergio L.
  • Serven, Luis

Abstract

The authors investigate the patterns and determinants of the currency risk premium in two currency boards-Argentina and Hong Kong. Despite the presumed rigidity of currency boards, currency premium is almost always positive and at times very large. Its term structure is usually upward sloping, but flattens out or even becomes inverted at times of turbulence. Currency premia differ across markets. The forward discount typically exceeds the currency premium derived from interbank rates, particularly during times of crisis. The large magnitude of these cross-market differences can be the consequence of unexploited arbitrage opportunities, market segmentation, or other risks embedded in typical measures of currency risk. The premium and its term structure depend on domestic and global factors related to devaluation expectations and risk perceptions.

Suggested Citation

  • Schmukler, Sergio L. & Serven, Luis, 2002. "Pricing currency risk : facts and puzzles from currency boards," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2815, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:2815
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Paolo Mauro & Nathan Sussman & Yishay Yafeh, 2002. "Emerging Market Spreads: Then versus Now," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(2), pages 695-733.
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    Cited by:

    1. Neven T. Valev & John A. Carlson, 2007. "Beliefs about Exchange-Rate Stability: Survey Evidence from the Currency Board in Bulgaria," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, pages 111-121.
    2. Broda, Christian & Yeyati, Eduardo Levy, 2006. "Endogenous Deposit Dollarization," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(4), pages 963-988, June.
    3. Schmukler, Sergio L. & Serven, Luis, 2002. "Pricing currency risk : facts and puzzles from currency boards," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2815, The World Bank.
    4. Neven Valev, 2000. "Building Monetary Credibility in a Transforming Economy," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper0212, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
    5. Neven Valev & John A. Carlson, 2002. "Tenuous Financial Stability," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper0210, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Environmental Economics&Policies; Fiscal&Monetary Policy; Economic Theory&Research; Banks&Banking Reform; Payment Systems&Infrastructure; Environmental Economics&Policies; Fiscal&Monetary Policy; Economic Theory&Research; Macroeconomic Management; Banks&Banking Reform;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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