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Hong Kong's Currency Board and Changing Monetary Regimes

In: Changes in Exchange Rates in Rapidly Developing Countries: Theory, Practice, and Policy Issues

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  • Yum K. Kwan
  • Francis Lui

Abstract

The paper discusses the historical background and institutional details of Hong Kong's currency board. We argue that its experience provides a good opportunity to test the macroeconomic implications of the currency board regime. Using the method of Blanchard and Quah (1989), we show that the parameters of the structural equations and the characteristics of supply and demand shocks have significantly changed since adopting the regime. Variance decomposition and impulse response analyses indicate Hong Kong's currency board is less susceptible to supply shocks, but demand shocks can cause greater short-term volatility under the system. The decent performance of Hong Kong's currency board is due mainly to the stable fiscal policy of its government. Counter-factual exercises also show that three-fourths of the reduction in observed output volatility and two-thirds of that in observed inflation volatility are explained by the adoption of the currency board, while the remainder is explained by changes in the external environment. The improvement in stability does not rule out the possibility of monetary collapse, however.
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Suggested Citation

  • Yum K. Kwan & Francis Lui, 1999. "Hong Kong's Currency Board and Changing Monetary Regimes," NBER Chapters, in: Changes in Exchange Rates in Rapidly Developing Countries: Theory, Practice, and Policy Issues, pages 403-436, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:8627
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    2. Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 10(Win), pages 2-16.
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    6. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1986. "Are Business Cycles All Alike?," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 123-180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Bernanke, Ben S., 1986. "Alternative explanations of the money-income correlation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 49-99, January.
    8. John Williamson, 1995. "What Role of Currency Boards?," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number pa40, October.
    9. Schwartz, Anna J., 1993. "Currency boards: their past, present, and possible future role," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 147-187, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Richard W. Kopcke, 1999. "Currency boards: once and future monetary regimes?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue May, pages 21-37.
    2. repec:zbw:bofitp:1999_009 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Iikka Korhonen, 2000. "Currency Boards in the Baltic Countries: What Have We Learned?," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 25-46.
    4. Malgorzata Jakubiak, 1999. "Design and Operation of Existing Currency Board Arrangements," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0203, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    5. Mart Sırg, 2005. "Estoniaís Accession to the EMU," Working Papers 133, Tallinn School of Economics and Business Administration, Tallinn University of Technology.
    6. Sophie Chauvin, 2001. "Exit Options for Argentina with a Special Focus on Their Impact on External Trade," Working Papers 2001-07, CEPII research center.
    7. Sarkis Joseph Khoury & Clas Wihlborg, 2006. "Outsourcing Central Banking: Lessons from Estonia," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(2), pages 125-144.
    8. Yuen Chi-Wa, 2002. "Openness And The Output-Inflation Tradeoff: Floating Vs. Fixed Exchange Rates," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(4), pages 1-26.
    9. Yin-Wong Cheung, 2000. "Hong Kong Output Dynamics: An Empirical Analysis," Working Papers 112000, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    10. Schmukler, Sergio L. & Serven, Luis, 2002. "Pricing currency risk : facts and puzzles from currency boards," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2815, The World Bank.
    11. Raoul Lättemäe, 2001. "Monetary transmission mechanism in Estonia - some theorethical considerations and stylized aspects," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2001-4, Bank of Estonia, revised 13 Oct 2001.
    12. Tse, Y. K. & Yip, Paul S. L., 2003. "The impacts of Hong Kong's Currency Board reforms on the interbank market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(12), pages 2273-2296, December.
    13. Iikka Korhonen, 2000. "Currency Boards in the Baltic Countries: What Have We Learned?," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 25-46.
    14. Leontyeva, Elena (Леонтьева, Елена) & Narkevich, Sergey (Наркевич, Сергей), 2015. "Optimal Practice of Creation and Management of Gold Reserves [Оптимальная Практика Создания И Управления Золотовалютными Резервами]," Published Papers mak12, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    15. Christopher A. Sims, 2001. "Fiscal Aspects of Central Bank Independence," CESifo Working Paper Series 547, CESifo.
    16. Rasmus Kattai, 2004. "Analyzing the Suitability of the Currency Board Arrangement for Estonia’s Accession to the EMU," University of Tartu - Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, in: Tiiu Paas & Egle Tafenau (ed.), Modelling the Economies of the Baltic Sea Region, edition 1, volume 17, chapter 6, pages 167-205, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, University of Tartu (Estonia).
    17. Urmas Sepp & Raoul Lättemäe & Martti Randveer, 2002. "The History and Sustainability of the CBA in Estonia," Macroeconomics 0212002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Schmukler, Sergio L. & Serven, Luis, 2002. "Pricing currency risk under currency boards," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 367-391, December.
    19. Sõrg, Mart, 2004. "Estonian Monetary System: Reconstruction, Performance, and Future Prospects," Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Diskussionspapiere 11/2004, University of Greifswald, Faculty of Law and Economics.
    20. Tse, Y.K. & Yip, Paul S.L., 2006. "Exchange-rate systems and interest-rate behaviour: The experience of Hong Kong and Singapore," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 212-227.
    21. Paul S. L. Yip, 2005. "On the Maintenance Costs and Exit Costs of the Peg in Hong Kong," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(03), pages 377-403.
    22. Bronka Rzepkowski, 2000. "The Expectations of Hong Kong Dollar Devaluation and Their Determinants," Working Papers 2000-04, CEPII research center.
    23. repec:zbw:bofitp:1999_006 is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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