IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedawp/95-1.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

European Monetary Union: evidence from structural VARs

Author

Listed:
  • Joseph A. Whitt

Abstract

This paper examines the historical pattern of aggregate demand and supply shocks in several European Monetary System countries in order to assess the desirability of monetary union. Countries with similar patterns of shocks are presumably better candidates for monetary union than those hit by wildly disparate shocks. The historical time series of shocks is identified by estimating a vector autoregressive model while imposing the restriction that demand shocks have no permanent effect on real output. In most cases supply shocks are positively correlated with those of Germany, but the negative correlation of demand shocks suggests that monetary union may not be desirable.

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph A. Whitt, 1995. "European Monetary Union: evidence from structural VARs," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 95-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:95-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.atlantafed.org/-/media/documents/research/publications/wp/1995/wp951.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    2. C Bean, 1992. "Economic and Monetary Union," CEP Discussion Papers dp0086, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    3. Bernanke, Ben S., 1986. "Alternative explanations of the money-income correlation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 49-99, January.
    4. Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1993. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 644-652, June.
    5. Barry Eichengreen, 1992. "Is Europe an Optimum Currency Area?," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Silvio Borner & Herbert Grubel (ed.), The European Community after 1992, chapter 8, pages 138-161, Palgrave Macmillan.
    6. Kenneth A. Froot & Kenneth Rogoff, 1991. "The EMS, the EMU, and the Transition to a Common Currency," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 269-328, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Matthew D. Shapiro & Mark W. Watson, 1988. "Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1988, Volume 3, pages 111-156, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry, 1992. "Shocking Aspects of European Monetary Unification," CEPR Discussion Papers 643, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Ahmed, Shaghil & Ickes, Barry W. & Ping Wang & Byung Sam Yoo, 1993. "International Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 335-359, June.
    10. Ellis W. Tallman & Ping Wang, 1992. "Money demand and relative prices in hyperinflations: evidence from Germany and China," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 92-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    11. Charles R. Bean, 1992. "Economic and Monetary Union in Europe," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 31-52, Fall.
    12. Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry, 1992. "Shocking Aspects of Monetary Unification," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt791143kp, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    13. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    14. Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 10(Win), pages 2-16.
    15. Faust, Jon & Leeper, Eric M, 1997. "When Do Long-Run Identifying Restrictions Give Reliable Results?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(3), pages 345-353, July.
    16. Gamber, Edward N & Joutz, Frederick L, 1993. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1387-1393, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fisher, Douglas, 1996. "Monetary aggregation in the United States and Canada," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 91-106.
    2. Peter R. Hartley & Joseph A. Whitt, 1997. "Macroeconomic fluctuations in Europe: demand or supply, permanent or temporary?," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 97-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    3. Horvath, Julius, 2003. "Optimum currency area theory: A selective review," BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/2003, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    4. Hartley, Peter R. & Whitt Jr, Joseph A., 2003. "Macroeconomic fluctuations: Demand or supply, permanent or temporary?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 61-94, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Peter R. Hartley & Joseph A. Whitt, 1997. "Macroeconomic fluctuations in Europe: demand or supply, permanent or temporary?," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 97-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    2. Ghartey, E.E., 2008. "Is the Caribbean Community an Optimum Currency Area?," Estudios Economicos de Desarrollo Internacional, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 8(1), pages 5-36.
    3. Keating, John W., 2000. "Macroeconomic Modeling with Asymmetric Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 1-28, January.
    4. Lastrapes, W. D., 1998. "International evidence on equity prices, interest rates and money," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 377-406, June.
    5. Alain DeSerres & Alain Guay, 1995. "Selection of the Truncation Lag in Structural VARs (or VECMs) with Long-Run Restrictions," Econometrics 9510001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Francesco Busato & Alessandro Girardi & Amadeo Argentiero, 2005. "Technology and non-technology shocks in a two-sector economy," Economics Working Papers 2005-11, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    7. Faust, Jon & Leeper, Eric M, 1997. "When Do Long-Run Identifying Restrictions Give Reliable Results?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(3), pages 345-353, July.
    8. Weber, Axel A., 1996. "Germany before and after unification: A structural VAR analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 575-601, October.
    9. John Keating, 2004. "Interpreting Permanent and Transitory Shocks to Output When Aggregate Demand May Not Be Neutral in the Long-run," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 608, Econometric Society.
    10. Keating, John W., 1996. "Structural information in recursive VAR orderings," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(9-10), pages 1557-1580.
    11. Chantal Dupasquier & Alain Guay & Pierre St-Amant, 1997. "A Comparison of Alternative Methodologies for Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap," Staff Working Papers 97-5, Bank of Canada.
    12. Halabi, Claudia E. & Lastrapes, William D., 2003. "Estimating the liquidity effect in post-reform Chile: do inflationary expectations matter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 813-833, November.
    13. Helene Schuberth, 1998. "Room for manoeuvre of economic policy in EU countries are there costs of joining EMU?," Working Papers 35, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    14. René Lalonde & Jennifer Page & Pierre St-Amant, 1998. "Une nouvelle méthode d'estimation de l'écart de production et son application aux États-Unis, au Canada et à l'Allemagne," Staff Working Papers 98-21, Bank of Canada.
    15. Bruneau, C. & De Bandt, O., 1999. "Fiscal Policy in the Transition to Monetary Union: a Structural VAR Model," Working papers 60, Banque de France.
    16. Funke, Michael, 1997. "How important are demand and supply shocks in explaining German business cycles?: New evidence on an old debate," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 11-37, January.
    17. Houssa, Romain, 2008. "Monetary union in West Africa and asymmetric shocks: A dynamic structural factor model approach," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1-2), pages 319-347, February.
    18. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2004. "A Critique of Structural VARs Using Real Business Cycle Theory," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000518, UCLA Department of Economics.
    19. Lutz Kilian, 2013. "Structural vector autoregressions," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 22, pages 515-554, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    20. Faust, Jon & Whiteman, Charles H., 1997. "General-to-specific procedures for fitting a data-admissible, theory-inspired, congruent, parsimonious, encompassing, weakly-exogenous, identified, structural model to the DGP: A translation and criti," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 121-161, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:95-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Rob Sarwark (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbatus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.