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European Monetary Union: evidence from structural VARs

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  • Joseph A. Whitt

Abstract

This paper examines the historical pattern of aggregate demand and supply shocks in several European Monetary System countries in order to assess the desirability of monetary union. Countries with similar patterns of shocks are presumably better candidates for monetary union than those hit by wildly disparate shocks. The historical time series of shocks is identified by estimating a vector autoregressive model while imposing the restriction that demand shocks have no permanent effect on real output. In most cases supply shocks are positively correlated with those of Germany, but the negative correlation of demand shocks suggests that monetary union may not be desirable.

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph A. Whitt, 1995. "European Monetary Union: evidence from structural VARs," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 95-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:95-1
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    Cited by:

    1. Fisher, Douglas, 1996. "Monetary aggregation in the United States and Canada," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 91-106.
    2. Horvath, Julius, 2003. "Optimum currency area theory: A selective review," BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/2003, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    3. Hartley, Peter R. & Whitt Jr, Joseph A., 2003. "Macroeconomic fluctuations: Demand or supply, permanent or temporary?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 61-94, February.
    4. Peter R. Hartley & Joseph A. Whitt, 1997. "Macroeconomic fluctuations in Europe: demand or supply, permanent or temporary?," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 97-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

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