Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis?
In this article, Christopher A. Sims argues the answer to his title is yes. Sims explains that any decisionmaking model must incorporate some identifying assumptions to enable it to forecast the effects of alternative decisions. He argues that although all identifying assumptions in econometric policymaking models are of uncertain validity, those incorporated in vector autoregression (VAR) forecasting models have the advantage of allowing their uncertainty to be measured. Sims concludes by demonstrating a method for identifying a small macroeconomic VAR model so that it can be used to analyze monetary policy
Volume (Year): (1986)
Issue (Month): Win ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (612) 204-5000
Web page: http://minneapolisfed.org/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Web: http://www.minneapolisfed.org/pubs/ Email: |
This item is featured on the following reading lists or Wikipedia pages:
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedmqr:y:1986:i:win:p:2-16:n:v.10no.1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Janelle Ruswick)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.