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Hong Kong Output Dynamics: An Empirical Analysis

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  • Yin-Wong Cheung

Abstract

Advanced statistical techniques are used to analyze Hong Kong output dynamics. Hong Kong, Japan and the U.S. are found to share some common long-term and short-term cyclical variations. While the Hong Kong economy is susceptible to external shocks and Granger-caused by the other two economies, local factors account for a large proportion of output growth variability and are mainly responsible for her output uncertainty. On the transmission mechanism, the selected trade and financial variables have incremental explanatory power but do not lessen the ability of domestic and foreign output variables to explain Hong Kong growth dynamics. Interestingly, the U.S. does not appear to exert undue influences on Hong Kong.

Suggested Citation

  • Yin-Wong Cheung, 2001. "Hong Kong Output Dynamics: An Empirical Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 482, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_482
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Common trends; cycles; transmission mechanism; structural determinants;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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