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Common Trends and Common Cycles among Interest Rates of the G7-Countries

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  • Nannette Lindenberg
  • Frank Westermann

Abstract

In this paper we re-investigate the comovements of interest rates in the G7-countries. We propose a structured modus operandi to analyze the time series characteristics of interest rates and to test for common features. We conduct cointegration, serial correlation common feature and codependence tests with nominal and real interest rates using quarterly data from 1975 to 2007. Overall we only find little evidence of comovements. Common trends are occasionally observed, but the majority of interest rates are not cointegrated. Although some evidence for codependence of higher order is found among European countries, common cycles appear to exist only in rare cases and cannot be generalized for all interest rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Nannette Lindenberg & Frank Westermann, 2009. "Common Trends and Common Cycles among Interest Rates of the G7-Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 2532, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2532
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    Cited by:

    1. João Martins, 2022. "Bond Yields Movement Similarities and Synchronization in the G7: A Time–Frequency Analysis," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 18(2), pages 189-214, July.
    2. Bicu, A.C. & Candelon, B., 2012. "Government bond market dynamics and sovereign risk: systemic or idiosyncratic?," Research Memorandum 032, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    3. Subhani, Muhammad Imtiaz & Hasan, Syed Akif & Osman, Ms. Amber, 2012. "Do consumers buy bread and diamond with the same attachment?," MPRA Paper 45094, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Luisanna Onnis & Patrizio Tirelli, 2015. "Shadow economy: Does it matter for money velocity?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(3), pages 839-858, November.
    5. N. K. Kishor & H. A. Marfatia, 2013. "Does federal funds futures rate contain information about the treasury bill rate?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(16), pages 1311-1324, August.
    6. Hasan, Syed Akif & Subhani, Muhammad Imtiaz & Osman, Mohammad, 2012. "Co-movements of consumption patterns of high and low involvement products," MPRA Paper 37659, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Vatsa, Puneet & Basnet, Hem C., 2020. "The dynamics of energy prices and the Norwegian economy: A common trends and common cycles analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    interest rates; comovement; cointegration; serial correlation common feature; codependence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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