Interest Rate Linkages in EMU Countries: A Rolling Threshold Vector Error-Correction Approach
This paper revisits financial market integration in the European Economic and Monetary Union, using a threshold vector error-correction model (TVECM) for a fixed rolling window. This approach enables us to analyze the dynamics of transaction costs and detect any co-movements with (policy induced) changes in the financial environment. The TVECM methodology is applied on interest rates from different financial markets (government bonds, deposits, loans and mortgages) in Germany, France, Italy, Belgium and the Netherlands for the 1980-2006 period. Our main finding is that only for some country pairs and financial market segments there is evidence in support of financial integration.
|Date of creation:||2007|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Poschingerstrasse 5, 81679 Munich|
Phone: +49 (89) 9224-0
Fax: +49 (89) 985369
Web page: http://www.cesifo-group.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-472, August.
- Meese, Richard A & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. " On Unit Roots and the Empirical Modeling of Exchange Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1029-1035, September.
- repec:cup:macdyn:v:1:y:1997:i:3:p:640-57 is not listed on IDEAS
- Cochrane, John H, 1991. "A Simple Test of Consumption Insurance," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(5), pages 957-976, October.
- Townsend, Robert M, 1994.
"Risk and Insurance in Village India,"
Econometric Society, vol. 62(3), pages 539-591, May.
- Townsend, R.M., 1991. "Risk and Insurance in Village India," University of Chicago - Economics Research Center 91-3, Chicago - Economics Research Center.
- Robert M. Townsend, "undated". "Risk and Insurance in Village India," University of Chicago - Population Research Center 91-3a, Chicago - Population Research Center.
- Siklos, Pierre L. & Granger, Clive W.J., 1997.
"Regime-Sensitive Cointegration With An Application To Interest-Rate Parity,"
Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(03), pages 640-657, September.
- Siklos, P.L. & Granger, C.W.J., 1997. "Regime Sensitive Cointegration with an Application to Interest rate Parity," Working Papers 97-5, Wilfrid Laurier University, Department of Economics.
- Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 1989. " Common Stochastic Trends in a System of Exchange Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(1), pages 167-181, March.
- Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van, 2000.
"Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance,"
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521770415.
- Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van, 2000. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521779654.
- Balke, Nathan S. & Wohar, Mark E., 1997.
"Nonlinear dynamics and covered interest rate parity,"
9701, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Mark E. Wohar & Nathan S. Balke, 1998. "Nonlinear dynamics and covered interest rate parity," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 535-559.
- Ross Levine, 1997.
"Financial Development and Economic Growth: Views and Agenda,"
Journal of Economic Literature,
American Economic Association, vol. 35(2), pages 688-726, June.
- Levine, Ross, 1996. "Financial development and economic growth : views and agenda," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1678, The World Bank.
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
- Frédérique Bec & Anders Rahbek, 2004. "Vector equilibrium correction models with non-linear discontinuous adjustments," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(2), pages 628-651, December.
- Meyer, Jochen, 2003.
"Measuring Market Integration In The Presence Of Transaction Costs - A Threshold Vector Error Correction Approach,"
2003 Annual Meeting, August 16-22, 2003, Durban, South Africa
25869, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
- Meyer, Jochen, 2004. "Measuring market integration in the presence of transaction costs--a threshold vector error correction approach," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 31(2-3), pages 327-334, December.
- Karfakis, C. J. & Moschos, D.M., 1990.
"Interest Rate Linkages Within the European Monetary System: A Time Series Analysis,"
144, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
- Karfakis, Costas J & Moschos, Demetrios M, 1990. "Interest Rate Linkages within the European Monetary System: A Time Series Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 22(3), pages 389-394, August.
- Peel, David A & Taylor, Mark P, 2002. "Covered Interest Rate Arbitrage in the Interwar Period and the Keynes-Einzig Conjecture," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 51-75, February.
- Balke, Nathan S & Fomby, Thomas B, 1997.
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(3), pages 627-645, August.
- Balke, Nathan S. & Fomby, Thomas B., 1992. "Threshold cointegration," Working Papers 9209, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "RATS programs to replicate Balke-Fomby threshold cointegration," Statistical Software Components RTZ00010, Boston College Department of Economics.
- repec:syd:wpaper:144 is not listed on IDEAS
- Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
- Katsimbris, George M & Miller, Stephen M, 1993. "Interest Rate Linkages within the European Monetary System: Further Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(4), pages 771-779, November.
- Lo, Ming Chien & Zivot, Eric, 2001. "Threshold Cointegration And Nonlinear Adjustment To The Law Of One Price," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(04), pages 533-576, September.
- Kleimeier, Stefanie & Sander, Harald, 2000. "Regionalisation versus globalisation in European financial market integration: Evidence from co-integration analyses," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 1005-1043, June.
- repec:cup:macdyn:v:5:y:2001:i:4:p:533-76 is not listed on IDEAS
- Zhou, Su, 2003. "Interest rate linkages within the European Monetary System: new evidence incorporating long-run trends," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 571-590, August.
- Brada, Josef C. & Kutan, Ali M. & Zhou, Su, 2005. "Real and monetary convergence between the European Union's core and recent member countries: A rolling cointegration approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 249-270, January.
- Lieven Baele & Annalisa Ferrando & Peter Hördahl & Elizaveta Krylova & Cyril Monnet, 2004. "Measuring financial integration in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 14, European Central Bank.
- Hansen, Bruce E. & Seo, Byeongseon, 2002.
"Testing for two-regime threshold cointegration in vector error-correction models,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 293-318, October.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "RATS programs to replicate Hansen/Seo paper on threshold cointegration," Statistical Software Components RTZ00092, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Hassapis, Christis & Pittis, Nikitas & Prodromidis, Kyprianos, 1999. "Unit roots and Granger causality in the EMS interest rates: the German Dominance Hypothesis revisited," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 47-73, January.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2060. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Klaus Wohlrabe)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.