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Dynamics of Intra-EMS Interest Rate Linkages

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  • Christopher F Baum
  • John Barkoulas

Abstract

A number of previous studies have questioned the dominant role of Germany within the European Monetary System (EMS). These conclusions are often based on empirical findings that the interest rates of EMS member countries are not affected by German interest rates, even in the long run. In this study, we demonstrate that intra-EMS interest rate differentials (vis-a-vis Germany) exhibit mean-reverting behavior characterized by long-memory dynamics. In a system incorporating six EMS countries and one non-EMS country (the U.S.A.), estimates from a fractional error correction model suggest the presence of short-run intra-EMS monetary-policy interdependencies but validate the German Dominance Hypothesis in the long run.
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Suggested Citation

  • Christopher F Baum & John Barkoulas, 2002. "Dynamics of Intra-EMS Interest Rate Linkages," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 13, Society for Computational Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf2:13
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    Cited by:

    1. Frömmel, Michael & Kruse, Robinson, 2015. "Interest rate convergence in the EMS prior to European Monetary Union," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, pages 990-1004.
    2. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen Miller, 2016. "Inflation persistence and structural breaks: the experience of inflation targeting countries and the US," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 43(6), pages 980-1005, November.
    3. U. Ozlale & E. Yeldan, 2004. "Measuring exchange rate misalignment in Turkey," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(16), pages 1839-1849.
    4. Ralf Brüggemann & Helmut Lütkepohl & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2008. "Forecasting euro area variables with German pre-EMU data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(6), pages 465-481.
    5. Ana-Maria Fuertes & Jerry Coakley & Andrew Wood, 2004. "A new interpretation of the real exchange rate - yield differential nexus," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 32, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    6. repec:eee:intfin:v:49:y:2017:i:c:p:129-139 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:eee:intfin:v:50:y:2017:i:c:p:36-51 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Christou, Christina & Cunado, Juncal & Gupta, Rangan, 2017. "Convergence patterns in sovereign bond yield spreads: Evidence from the Euro Area," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 129-139.
    9. Dimitris A. Georgoutsos & Petros M. Migiakis, 2009. "Benchmark bonds interactions under regime shifts," Working Papers 103, Bank of Greece.
    10. Sibbertsen, Philipp & Wegener, Christoph & Basse, Tobias, 2014. "Testing for a break in the persistence in yield spreads of EMU government bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 109-118.
    11. Mete Feridun, 2006. "An Investigation of the German Dominance Hypothesis in the Context of Eastern Enlargement of the EU," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2006(2), pages 172-182.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    interest rates; long memory; error correction;

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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