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A re-evaluation of empirical tests of the Fisher hypothesis

Author

Listed:
  • Basma Bekdache

    (Wayne State University)

  • Christopher F. Baum

    (Boston College
    DIW Berlin)

Abstract

This paper shows that the recent literature that tests for a long-run Fisher relationship using cointegration analysis is seriously flawed. Cointegration analysis assumes that the variables in question are I(1) or I(d) with the same d. Using monthly post-war U.S. data from 1959-1997, we show that this is not the case for nominal interest rates and inflation. While we cannot reject the hypothesis that nominal interest rates have a unit root, we find that inflation is a long-memory process. A direct test for the equality of the fractional differencing parameter for both series decisively rejects the hypothesis that the series share the same order of integration.

Suggested Citation

  • Basma Bekdache & Christopher F. Baum, 2000. "A re-evaluation of empirical tests of the Fisher hypothesis," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 472, Boston College Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:boc:bocoec:472
    Note: This paper was previously titled "The Fisher Equation in the Context of Fractional Cointegration"
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    Cited by:

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    2. Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2004. "Long memory in the U.S. interest rate," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 265-276.
    3. David Demery & Nigel Duck, 2002. "Cointegration-based tests of the New Keynesian Model of inflation," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 02/541, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    4. Masudul Hasan Adil & Shadab Danish & Sajad Ahmad Bhat & Bandi Kamaiah, 2020. "Fisher Effect: An Empirical Re-examination in Case of India," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(1), pages 262-276.
    5. Burcu Kiran, 2013. "A fractional cointegration analysis of Fisher hypothesis: evidence from Turkey," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 1077-1084, February.
    6. Kanas, Angelos, 2008. "On real interest rate dynamics and regime switching," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 2089-2098, October.
    7. Christoph Berninger & Almond Stocker & David Rugamer, 2020. "A Bayesian Time-Varying Autoregressive Model for Improved Short- and Long-Term Prediction," Papers 2006.05750, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2021.
    8. Jan Willem van den End, 2011. "Statistical evidence on the mean reversion of interest rates," DNB Working Papers 284, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fisher hypothesis; cointegration; long memory;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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