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A re-evaluation of empirical tests of the Fisher hypothesis

Author

Listed:
  • Basma Bekdache

    () (Wayne State University)

  • Christopher F. Baum

    () (Boston College
    DIW Berlin)

Abstract

This paper shows that the recent literature that tests for a long-run Fisher relationship using cointegration analysis is seriously flawed. Cointegration analysis assumes that the variables in question are I(1) or I(d) with the same d. Using monthly post-war U.S. data from 1959-1997, we show that this is not the case for nominal interest rates and inflation. While we cannot reject the hypothesis that nominal interest rates have a unit root, we find that inflation is a long-memory process. A direct test for the equality of the fractional differencing parameter for both series decisively rejects the hypothesis that the series share the same order of integration.

Suggested Citation

  • Basma Bekdache & Christopher F. Baum, 2000. "A re-evaluation of empirical tests of the Fisher hypothesis," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 472, Boston College Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:boc:bocoec:472
    Note: This paper was previously titled "The Fisher Equation in the Context of Fractional Cointegration"
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kanas, Angelos, 2008. "On real interest rate dynamics and regime switching," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 2089-2098, October.
    2. Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2004. "Long memory in the U.S. interest rate," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 265-276.
    3. David Demery & Nigel Duck, 2002. "Cointegration-based tests of the New Keynesian Model of inflation," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 02/541, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    4. Burcu Kiran, 2013. "A fractional cointegration analysis of Fisher hypothesis: evidence from Turkey," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 1077-1084, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fisher hypothesis; cointegration; long memory;

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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