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Statistical evidence on the mean reversion of interest rates

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  • Jan Willem van den End

Abstract

Based on two hundred years of annual data of the Netherlands , Germany , US and Japan we analyse the mean reversion of long-term interest rates, by unit root tests over rolling windows and taking into account structural breaks and regime changes. While short-term rates and the yield curve tend to revert to their long-term average value, long-term rates can persistently deviate from it. At the outside, we only find weak statistical evidence for mean reversion of long-term rates. Outcomes of smooth transition autoregressive ( STAR ) models for long-term interest rates, indicate that the speed of mean reversion is regime dependent, being stronger when rates are far from their equilibrium value.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan Willem van den End, 2011. "Statistical evidence on the mean reversion of interest rates," DNB Working Papers 284, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:284
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    interest rates; statistical methods; time-series models;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C49 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Other
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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