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Dynamics of Intra-EMS Interest Rate Linkages

Author

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  • Christopher F. Baum

    (Boston College
    DIW Berlin)

  • John Barkoulas

    (Georgia Southern University)

Abstract

A number of previous studies have questioned the dominant role of Germany within the EMS. These conclusions are often based on empirical findings that interest rates of member countries of the EMS are not affected by German interest rates, even in the long run. In this study we establish evidence to the contrary by demonstrating that intra-EMS interest rate differentials (vis-a-vis Germany) exhibit mean-reverting behavior (a necessary but not sufficient condition for German dominance) characterized by long-memory dynamics. In a system incorporating six EMS countries and one non-EMS country (the U.S.), estimates from a fractional error correction model suggest the presence of short-run intra-EMS monetary-policy interdependencies, but they validate the German Dominance Hypothesis in the long run.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher F. Baum & John Barkoulas, 2001. "Dynamics of Intra-EMS Interest Rate Linkages," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 492, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 04 May 2004.
    • Handle: RePEc:boc:bocoec:492
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    2. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller, 2016. "Inflation Persistence and Structural Breaks: The Experience of Inflation Targeting Countries and the US," Working papers 2016-21, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    3. William Bryant & Roselyne Joyeux, 2010. "Interest linkages between the US, UK and German interest rates: should the UK join the European Monetary Union?," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(6), pages 633-647.
    4. James McNeil, 2024. "Modeling interest rate setting at the European Central Bank with bargaining models and counterfactuals," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 66(3), pages 1037-1053, March.
    5. U. Ozlale & E. Yeldan, 2004. "Measuring exchange rate misalignment in Turkey," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(16), pages 1839-1849.
    6. Ralf Brüggemann & Helmut Lütkepohl & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2008. "Forecasting euro area variables with German pre-EMU data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(6), pages 465-481.
    7. Robinson Kruse & Christoph Wegener, 2019. "Explosive behaviour and long memory with an application to European bond yield spreads," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 66(1), pages 139-153, February.
    8. Ana-Maria Fuertes & Jerry Coakley & Andrew Wood, 2004. "A new interpretation of the real exchange rate - yield differential nexus," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 32, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    9. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Christou, Christina & Cunado, Juncal & Gupta, Rangan, 2017. "Convergence patterns in sovereign bond yield spreads: Evidence from the Euro Area," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 129-139.
    10. Jose E. Gomez-Gonzalez & Santiago Gomez-Malagon & Luis F. Melo-Velandia & Daniel Ordoñez-Callamand, 2020. "A rank approach for studying cross-currency bases and the covered interest rate parity," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 357-369, July.
    11. Soon, Siew-Voon & Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Mohamad Shariff, Nurul Sima, 2017. "The persistence in real interest rates: Does it solve the intertemporal consumption behavior puzzle?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 36-51.
    12. Dimitris A. Georgoutsos & Petros M. Migiakis, 2012. "Benchmark Bonds Interactions under Regime Shifts," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 18(3), pages 389-409, June.
    13. Brüggemann, Ralf & Lütkepohl, Helmut & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2006. "Forecasting euro-area variables with German pre-EMU data," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2006-065, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    14. Sibbertsen, Philipp & Wegener, Christoph & Basse, Tobias, 2014. "Testing for a break in the persistence in yield spreads of EMU government bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 109-118.
    15. Mete Feridun, 2006. "An Investigation of the German Dominance Hypothesis in the Context of Eastern Enlargement of the EU," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2006(2), pages 172-182.
    16. Kerkemeier, Marco & Kruse-Becher, Robinson, 2022. "Join the club! Dynamics of global ESG indices convergence," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    EMS; interest rates; German dominance; mean reversion; monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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