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Was there Monetary Autonomy in Europe on the eve of EMU? The German Dominance Hypothesis Re-Examined

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  • Bajo-Rubio, Oscar
  • Montavez-Garces, M. Dolores

Abstract

In this paper we re-examine the German dominance hypothesis, as a way to assess whether the loss of monetary autonomy in Europe associated with EMU had been significant. We use Granger-causality tests between the interest rates of Germany and all the countries participating in the European Monetary System, with the sample period running until December 1998. Our results would support a weak version of the hypothesis, with Germany playing a certain "leadership" or special role in the EMS, although she would not have been strictly the "dominant" player.

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  • Bajo-Rubio, Oscar & Montavez-Garces, M. Dolores, 2002. "Was there Monetary Autonomy in Europe on the eve of EMU? The German Dominance Hypothesis Re-Examined," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 5(2), pages 1-26, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:jaecon:44077
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.44077
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    Cited by:

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    2. Jean-Claude Maswana, 2005. "Assessing the Money, Exchange Rate, Price Links during Hyperinflationary Episodes in the Democratic Republic of the Congo," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 15(19), pages 1-10.
    3. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez, "undated". "Non-Linear Forecasting Methods: Some Applications to the Analysis of Financial Series," Working Papers 2002-01, FEDEA.
    4. Thomas Gries & Manfred Kraft & Daniel Meierrieks, 2011. "Financial deepening, trade openness and economic growth in Latin America and the Caribbean," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(30), pages 4729-4739.
    5. Forssbaeck, Jens & Oxelheim, Lars, 2005. "On the Link between Exchange-Rate Regimes and Monetary-Policy Autonomy: The European Experience," Working Paper Series 637, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    6. Gries, Thomas & Kraft, Manfred & Meierrieks, Daniel, 2009. "Linkages Between Financial Deepening, Trade Openness, and Economic Development: Causality Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 1849-1860, December.
    7. Mete Feridun, 2006. "An Investigation of the German Dominance Hypothesis in the Context of Eastern Enlargement of the EU," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2006(2), pages 172-182.
    8. Bajo-Rubio, Oscar & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon & Fernandez-Rodriguez, Fernando, 2001. "Asymmetry in the EMS: New evidence based on non-linear forecasts," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 451-473, March.
    9. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:15:y:2005:i:19:p:1-10 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Sibbertsen, Philipp & Wegener, Christoph & Basse, Tobias, 2014. "Testing for a break in the persistence in yield spreads of EMU government bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 109-118.

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    Keywords

    Financial Economics;

    JEL classification:

    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

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