IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/adr/anecst/y1995i40p125-160.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Asymmetry in the EMS revisited: Evidence from the Causality Analysis of Daily Eurorates

Author

Listed:
  • Jérôme Henry
  • Jens Weidmann

Abstract

We use non-stationary econometrics to analyze asymmetry and dominance within the EMS through interest rate linkages from April 1983 to the end of 1992. Daily data (French, German and US one-month Eurorates) are used for their better suitability to the analysis of causality. We first show there is a break in the long-run structure of the system of interest rates: two sub-periods are therefore analyzed, before and after German unification. Three concepts of causality are then tested: causality in short-run dynamics and long-run exogeneity in the VAR representation as well as long-run impulse-response in the MA representation. On both sub-periods, tests confirm the French rate is submitted to the German dominance in the short-run. Posterior to the unification, the German interest rate dynamics does not even depend on that of the US rate. The MA analysis also shows the trends driving the system come from the US and the German rates prior to unification, but only from the latter afterwards.

Suggested Citation

  • Jérôme Henry & Jens Weidmann, 1995. "Asymmetry in the EMS revisited: Evidence from the Causality Analysis of Daily Eurorates," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 40, pages 125-160.
    • Handle: RePEc:adr:anecst:y:1995:i:40:p:125-160
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/20076018
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & M. Dolores Montávez-Garcés, 2002. "Was There Monetary Autonomy in Europe on the Eve of Emu? the German Dominance Hypothesis Re-Examined," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(2), pages 185-207, November.
    2. Catherine Bruneau & Eric Jondeau, 1999. "Long‐run Causality, with an Application to International Links Between Long‐term Interest Rates," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(4), pages 545-568, November.
    3. Uctum, Merih, 1999. "European integration and asymmetry in the EMS," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 769-798, October.
    4. Bajo-Rubio, Oscar & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon & Fernandez-Rodriguez, Fernando, 2001. "Asymmetry in the EMS: New evidence based on non-linear forecasts," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 451-473, March.
    5. Forssbaeck, Jens & Oxelheim, Lars, 2005. "On the Link between Exchange-Rate Regimes and Monetary-Policy Autonomy: The European Experience," Working Paper Series 637, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    6. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez, "undated". "Non-Linear Forecasting Methods: Some Applications to the Analysis of Financial Series," Working Papers 2002-01, FEDEA.
    7. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & M. Dolores Montávez-Garcés, "undated". "There was monetary autonomy in Europe on the eve of EMU?. The German dominance hypothesis re-examined," Studies on the Spanish Economy 52, FEDEA.
    8. Samad, Abdus, 2018. "Is there any causality between Islamic banks’ return on depositors and conventional banks’ deposit interest: Evidence of causality from Bahrain’s financial market," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center, vol. 14(4), pages 894-912, August.
    9. Kremer, Manfred, 1999. "Die Kapitalmarktzinsen in Deutschland und den USA: Wie eng ist der Zinsverbund? Eine Anwendung der multivariaten Kointegrationsanalyse," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 1999,02, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    10. Éric Girardin & Velayoudom Marimoutou, 1997. "Les fondamentaux permettent-ils d'améliorer la prévision du taux de change franc-dollar ?," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 48(3), pages 661-672.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:adr:anecst:y:1995:i:40:p:125-160. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Secretariat General or Laurent Linnemer (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ensaefr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.