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There Was Monetary Autonomy In Europe On the Eve Of Emu? The German Dominance Hypothesis Re-Examined

In this paper we re-examine the German dominance hypothesis, as a way to assess whether the loss of monetary autonomy in Europe associated with EMU had been significant. We use Granger-causality tests between the interest rates of Germany and all the countries participating at any time in the European Monetary System, with the sample period running until December 1998. Our results would support a weak version of the hypothesis, with Germany playing a certain ³leadership² or special role in the EMS, although she would not had been strictly the ³dominant² player.

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Paper provided by Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra in its series Documentos de Trabajo - Lan Gaiak Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra with number 9906.

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Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: 1999
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nav:ecupna:9906
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  1. Giavazzi, Francesco & Pagano, Marco, 1986. "The Advantages of Tying One's Hands: EMS Discipline and Central Bank Credibility," CEPR Discussion Papers 135, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cahiers de recherche 8633, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  3. Shin, Yongcheol, 1994. "A Residual-Based Test of the Null of Cointegration Against the Alternative of No Cointegration," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(01), pages 91-115, March.
  4. Edward H. Gardner & William R. M. Perraudin, 1993. "Asymmetry in the ERM: A Case Study of French and German Interest Rates Before and After German Unification," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(2), pages 427-450, June.
  5. Peter C.B. Phillips & Sam Ouliaris, 1987. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 847R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1988.
  6. Katsimbris, George M & Miller, Stephen M, 1993. "Interest Rate Linkages within the European Monetary System: Further Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(4), pages 771-79, November.
  7. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Nikitas Pittis, 1995. "Interest rate linkages within the European Monetary System: an alternative interpretation," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(2), pages 45-47.
  8. Wyplosz, Charles, 1997. "EMU: Why and How It Might Happen," CEPR Discussion Papers 1685, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Artis, Michael J & Zhang, Wenda, 1995. "International Business Cycles and the ERM: Is there a European Business Cycle?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1191, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Hassapis, Christis & Pittis, Nikitas & Prodromidis, Kyprianos, 1999. "Unit roots and Granger causality in the EMS interest rates: the German Dominance Hypothesis revisited," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 47-73, January.
  11. Karfakis, C. J. & Moschos, D.M., 1990. "Interest Rate Linkages Within the European Monetary System: A Time Series Analysis," Working Papers 144, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
  12. Melitz, Jacques, 1988. "Monetary Discipline and Cooperation in the European Monetary System: A Synthesis," CEPR Discussion Papers 219, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Michele Fratianni & Juergen Hagen, 1990. "German dominance in the EMS," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 67-87, February.
  14. Hsiao, Cheng, 1981. "Autoregressive modelling and money-income causality detection," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 85-106.
  15. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
  16. Cohen, Daniel & Wyplosz, Charles, 1989. "The European Monetary Union: An Agnostic Evaluation," CEPR Discussion Papers 306, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  17. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991. "A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  18. Óscar Bajo Rubio & Simón Sosvilla Rivero & Fernando Fernández Rodríguez, 2000. "Asymmetry In The Ems: New Evidence Based On Non-Linear Forecasts," Documentos de Trabajo - Lan Gaiak Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra 0001, Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra.
  19. repec:cup:etheor:v:10:y:1994:i:1:p:95-115 is not listed on IDEAS
  20. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  21. Jérôme HENRY & Jens WEIDMANN, 1995. "Asymmetry in the EMS revisited: Evidence from the Causality Analysis of Daily Eurorates," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ENSAE, issue 40, pages 125-160.
  22. Phillips, Peter C B & Hansen, Bruce E, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125, January.
  23. Peter C.B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1988. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 869R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Apr 1989.
  24. Koedijk, Kees G. & Kool, Clemens J. M., 1992. "Dominant interest and inflation differentials within the EMS," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 925-943, May.
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