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Assessing the Money, Exchange Rate, Price Links during Hyperinflationary Episodes in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

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  • Jean-Claude Maswana

    (Kyoto University)

Abstract

The determination of the causal pattern among inflation, money growth, and exchange rate has important implications for policymakers regarding appropriate stabilization policies in developing economies. Using Congolese data where the pace of broad money growth and hyperinflation (23,760% annual change) reached record levels in early 1990s, we use single-equation multivariate autoregressive models with the optimal lag selected using Hsiao's approach to Granger causality. Results indicate feedback causality between inflation and money growth on one side, and unidirectional Granger causality from money growth to the exchange rate and from the exchange rate to inflation on the other. These results suggest that the over-riding goal of disinflation needs to be accomplished initially by exchange rate stabilization, followed by a direct inflation targeting.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Claude Maswana, 2005. "Assessing the Money, Exchange Rate, Price Links during Hyperinflationary Episodes in the Democratic Republic of the Congo," Development and Comp Systems 0511023, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpdc:0511023
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 12. Inflation in the DR Congo
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    Cited by:

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    2. Sébastien Charles & Jonathan Marie, 2020. "A Note on the Competing Causes of High Inflation in Bulgaria during the 1990s: Money Supply or Exchange Rate?," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(3), pages 433-443, July.

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    Keywords

    Congo Inflation Hsiao's version of Granger Causality;

    JEL classification:

    • O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth
    • P - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems

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