Assessing the Money, Exchange Rate, Price Links during Hyperinflationary Episodes in the Democratic Republic of the Congo
The determination of the causal pattern among inflation, money growth, and exchange rate has important implications for policymakers regarding appropriate stabilization policies in developing economies. Using Congolese data where the pace of broad money growth and hyperinflation (23,760% annual change) reached record levels in early 1990s, we use single−equation multivariate autoregressive models with the optimal lag selected using Hsiao fs approach to Granger causality. Results indicate feedback causality between inflation and money growth on one side, and unidirectional Granger causality from money growth to the exchange rate and from the exchange rate to inflation on the other. These results suggest that the over−riding goal of disinflation needs to be accomplished initially by exchange rate stabilization, followed by a direct inflation targeting.
|Date of creation:||22 Nov 2005|
|Date of revision:|
|Note:||Type of Document - pdf; pages: 12. Inflation in the DR Congo|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://econwpa.repec.org|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hsiao, Cheng, 1982. "Autoregressive modeling and causal ordering of economic variables," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 243-259, November.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987.
"Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing,"
Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
- Cheng, Benjamin S. & Lai, Tin Wei, 1997. "An investigation of co-integration and causality between energy consumption and economic activity in Taiwan," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 435-444, October.
- Oscar Bajo-Rubio & M. Dolores Montávez-Garcés, 2002.
"Was there Monetary Autonomy in Europe on the eve of EMU? The German Dominance Hypothesis Re-Examined,"
Journal of Applied Economics,
Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 185-207, November.
- Oscar Bajo & Maria Dolores Montavez, 1999. "There Was Monetary Autonomy In Europe On the Eve Of Emu? The German Dominance Hypothesis Re-Examined," Documentos de Trabajo - Lan Gaiak Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra 9906, Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra.
- Elie Canetti & Joshua E. Greene, 1991. "Monetary Growth and Exchange Rate Depreciation As Causes of Inflation in African Countries; An Empirical Analysis," IMF Working Papers 91/67, International Monetary Fund.
- Burdekin, Richard C. K. & Burkett, Paul, 1996. "Hyperinflation, the exchange rate and endogenous money: post-World War I Germany revisited," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 599-621, August.
- Phillips, P.C.B., 1986.
"Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression,"
Cahiers de recherche
8633, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
- Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
- Hsiao, Cheng, 1981. "Autoregressive modelling and money-income causality detection," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 85-106.
- MathÃas Vernengo, 2007. "Money and Inflation," Chapters, in: A Handbook of Alternative Monetary Economics, chapter 28 Edward Elgar Publishing.
- Matias Vernengo, 2005. "Money and Inflation: A Taxonomy," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2005_14, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
- Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1973. "Rational Expectations and the Dynamics of Hyperinflation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 14(2), pages 328-50, June.
- Webb, Steven B, 1985. "Government Debt and Inflationary Expectations as Determinants of the Money Supply in Germany, 1919-23," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(4), pages 479-92, November.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpdc:0511023. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.