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Does the euro dominate Central and Eastern European money markets?

Author

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  • Mario Cerrato
  • Alexander Kadow
  • Ronald MacDonald

Abstract

The so-called German Dominance Hypothesis (GDH) claimed that Bundesbank policies were transmitted into other European Monetary System (EMS) interest rates during the pre-euro era. We reformulate this hypothesis for the Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries that are on the verge of accessing the eurozone. We test this "Euro Dominance Hypothesis (EDH)" in a novel way using a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) approach that combines country-specific error correction models in a global system. We find that euro area monetary policies are transmitted into CEE interest rates, which provides evidence for monetary integration between the eurozone and CEE countries. Our framework also allows for introducing global monetary shocks to provide empirical evidence regarding the effects of the recent financial crisis on monetary integration in Europe.

Suggested Citation

  • Mario Cerrato & Alexander Kadow & Ronald MacDonald, 2010. "Does the euro dominate Central and Eastern European money markets?," Working Papers 2010_21, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  • Handle: RePEc:gla:glaewp:2010_21
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    German Dominance Hypothesis; Global VAR; Central and Eastern Europe; monetary integration; European integration.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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