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Hitting and hoping?: Meeting the exchange rate and inflation criteria during a period of nominal convergence

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  • Lewis, John

Abstract

This paper analyses the effect of the nominal convergence process on the ability of Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) to meet both the inflation and the exchange rate criteria for Eurozone entry. The size of these convergence effects on the exchange rate (for inflation targeters) and for inflation differentials (under a fixed exchange rate) is estimated for a variety of different convergence scenarios. The key result, robust across all scenarios, is that countries with fixed exchange rates will find it much harder to simultaneously meet the criteria than inflation targeters. Probit estimates on the ability of a country to get inflation below the reference value under a fixed exchange rate show a strong effect for the relative price level.

Suggested Citation

  • Lewis, John, 2009. "Hitting and hoping?: Meeting the exchange rate and inflation criteria during a period of nominal convergence," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 508-524, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:poleco:v:25:y:2009:i:4:p:508-524
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. John Lewis & Karsten Staehr, 2010. "The Maastricht Inflation Criterion: What is the Effect of European Union Enlargement?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48, pages 687-708, June.
    2. Vlastimir Vukovic & Aleksandar Zdravkovic, 2011. "The Inflation and Exchange Rate in the Five Balkan Countries from Maastricht Convergence Criteria Prospect," Book Chapters, Institute of Economic Sciences.
    3. Zsolt Darvas & György Szapáry, 2008. "Euro Area Enlargement and Euro Adoption Strategies," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 304, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    4. Hiranya Nath & Kiril Tochkov, 2013. "Relative inflation dynamics in the new EU member countries of Central and Eastern Europe," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 1-22, August.
    5. Václav Žďárek, 2009. "Challenges for the new EU member states on the road to the Eurozone," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 157-177, July.
    6. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Edouard Turkisch, 2009. "The ECB Governing Council in an Enlarged Euro Area," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47, pages 25-53, January.
    7. John Lewis, 2011. "How has the Financial Crisis Affected the Eurozone Accession Outlook in Central and Eastern Europe?," Chapters,in: The Economic Crisis and European Integration, chapter 11 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. Kadow, Alexander & Cerrato, Mario & MacDonald, Ronald & Straetmans, Stefan, 2013. "Does the euro dominate Central and Eastern European money markets?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 700-718.
    9. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Karl Taylor, 2016. "Inflation convergence in Central and Eastern Europe vs. the Eurozone: Non-linearities and long memory," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 63(5), pages 519-538, November.
    10. John Lewis & Karsten Staehr, 2007. "The Maastricht Inflation Criterion: What is the Effect of Expansion of the European Union?," DNB Working Papers 151, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    11. TRIANDAFIL, Cristina Maria, 2013. "Sustainability of convergence in the context of macro-prudential policies in the European Union," Working Papers of National Institute of Economic Research 130618, National Institute of Economic Research.
    12. Karsten Staehr, 2010. "Income convergence and inflation in Central and Eastern Europe : does the sun always rise in the East," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2010-04, Bank of Estonia, revised 22 Mar 2010.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central and Eastern Europe Nominal convergence Euro adoption Exchange rate regime;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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