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Implications of ERM2 for Poland???s Monetary Policy

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  • Lucjan Orlowski
  • Krzyzstof Rybinski

Abstract

This study proposes an extension to the inflation targeting framework for Poland that takes into consideration the exchange rate stability constraints imposed by the obligatory participation in the ERM2 on the path to the euro. The modified policy framework is based on targeting the differential between the domestic and the implicit euro area inflation forecasts. The exchange rate stability objective enters the central bank reaction function and is treated as an indicator variable. Adjustments of interest rates respond to changes in the relative inflation forecast, while foreign exchange market intervention is applied for the purpose of stabilizing the exchange rate. The dynamic market equilibrium exchange rate is ascertained by employing the Johanssen cointegration tests and the threshold generalized autoregressive heteroscedasticity model with the in-mean extension and generalized error distribution (TGARCH-M-GED).

Suggested Citation

  • Lucjan Orlowski & Krzyzstof Rybinski, 2005. "Implications of ERM2 for Poland???s Monetary Policy," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp802, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    • Handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:2005-802
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    Cited by:

    1. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2010. "Monetary policy rules for convergence to the Euro," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 148-159, June.
    2. Sahar Bahmani & Ali Kutan, 2010. "How stable is the demand for money in emerging economies?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(26), pages 3307-3318.
    3. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Ali M. Kutan & Dan Xi, 2013. "The impact of economic and monetary uncertainty on the demand for money in emerging economies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(23), pages 3278-3287, August.
    4. Marko Malovic & Malisa Djukic & Srdjan Redzepagic, 2011. "Maastricht Criteria at the Age of 18: Are They Converging, Which Party and to What End?," Book Chapters, in: Mirjana Radovic Markovic & Srdjan Redzepagic & João Sousa Andrade & Paulino Teixeira (ed.), Serbia and the European Union: Economic Lessons from the New Member States, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 11-26, Institute of Economic Sciences.
    5. Kocenda, Evzen & Valachy, Juraj, 2006. "Exchange rate volatility and regime change: A Visegrad comparison," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 727-753, December.
    6. Mikek, Peter, 2008. "Alternative monetary policies and fiscal regime in new EU members," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 335-353, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation targeting; monetary convergence; ERM2; euro; Poland; cointegration; GARCH;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • P24 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; Inflation

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