IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Implications of ERM2 for Poland???s Monetary Policy

Author Info

Listed author(s):
  • Lucjan Orlowski

    ()

  • Krzyzstof Rybinski

    ()

Abstract

This study proposes an extension to the inflation targeting framework for Poland that takes into consideration the exchange rate stability constraints imposed by the obligatory participation in the ERM2 on the path to the euro. The modified policy framework is based on targeting the differential between the domestic and the implicit euro area inflation forecasts. The exchange rate stability objective enters the central bank reaction function and is treated as an indicator variable. Adjustments of interest rates respond to changes in the relative inflation forecast, while foreign exchange market intervention is applied for the purpose of stabilizing the exchange rate. The dynamic market equilibrium exchange rate is ascertained by employing the Johanssen cointegration tests and the threshold generalized autoregressive heteroscedasticity model with the in-mean extension and generalized error distribution (TGARCH-M-GED).

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/40188/3/wp802.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan in its series William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series with number wp802.

as
in new window

Length: pages
Date of creation: 01 Dec 2005
Handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:2005-802
Contact details of provider: Postal:
724 E. University Ave, Wyly Hall 1st Flr, Ann Arbor MI 48109

Phone: 734 763-5020
Fax: 734 763-5850
Web page: http://www.wdi.umich.edu
Email:


More information through EDIRC

Keywords: inflation targeting; monetary convergence; ERM2; euro; Poland; cointegration; GARCH;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
  • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
  • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
  • P24 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies - - - National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; Inflation

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window


  1. György Szapáry, 2000. "Maastricht and the Choice of Exchange Rate Regime in Transition Countries During The Run-Up to EMU," MNB Working Papers 2000/7, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
  2. Andrew Haldane, 1997. "Some Issues in Inflation Targeting," Bank of England working papers 74, Bank of England.
  3. Fabio M. Natalucci & Federico Ravenna, 2002. "The road to adopting the euro: monetary policy and exchange rate regimes in EU candidate countries," International Finance Discussion Papers 741, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Laurence M. Ball, 1999. "Policy Rules for Open Economies," NBER Chapters,in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 127-156 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Kocenda, Evzen & Kutan, Ali M. & Yigit, Taner M., 2006. "Pilgrims to the Eurozone: How far, how fast?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 311-327, December.
  6. Svensson, Lars E. O. & Woodford, Michael, 2003. "Indicator variables for optimal policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 691-720, April.
  7. Kutan, Ali M. & Yigit, Taner M., 2002. "Nominal and real stochastic convergence within transition economies and to the European Union: Evidence from panel data," ZEI Working Papers B 21-2002, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
  8. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2005. "Monetary convergence of the EU accession countries to the eurozone: A theoretical framework and policy implications," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 203-225, January.
  9. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1999. "Inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 607-654, June.
  10. Tristani, Oreste, 1994. " Variable Probability of Realignment in a Target Zone," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 96(1), pages 1-14.
  11. Jesús Crespo-Cuaresma & Balázs Egert & Ronald MacDonald, 2005. "Non-Linear Exchange Rate Dynamics in Target Zones: A Bumpy Road towards a Honeymoon - Some Evidence from the ERM, ERM2 and Selected New EU Member States," CESifo Working Paper Series 1511, CESifo Group Munich.
  12. Domac, Ilker & Mendoza, Alfonso, 2004. "Is there room for foreign exchange interventions under an inflation targeting framework ? Evidence from Mexico and Turkey," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3288, The World Bank.
  13. Lucjan T. Orlowski & Kirsten Lommatzsch, 2005. "Bond Yield Compression in the Countries Converging to the Euro," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp799, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  14. Golinelli, Roberto & Rovelli, Riccardo, 2005. "Monetary policy transmission, interest rate rules and inflation targeting in three transition countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 183-201, January.
  15. Lucjan Orlowski, 2003. "Monetary Convergence and Risk Premiums in the EU Accession Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 251-267, July.
  16. Dibooglu, Sel & Kutan, Ali M., 2005. "Sources of inflation and output movements in Poland and Hungary: Policy implications for accession to the economic and monetary union," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 107-131, March.
  17. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1, June.
  18. Barry Eichengreen, 2002. "Can Emerging Markets Float? Should They Inflation Target?," Working Papers Series 36, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  19. Peter B. Kenen & Ellen E. Meade, 2003. "EU Accession and the Euro: Close Together or Far Apart?," Policy Briefs PB03-09, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  20. Svensson, Lars E. O. & Woodford, Michael, 2004. "Indicator variables for optimal policy under asymmetric information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 661-690, January.
  21. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2003. "What Is Wrong with Taylor Rules? Using Judgment in Monetary Policy through Targeting Rules," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 426-477, June.
  22. Mark P. Taylor, 2004. "Is Official Exchange Rate Intervention Effective?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 71, pages 1-11, 02.
  23. Carl E. Walsh, 2003. "Implications of a changing economic structure for the strategy of monetary policy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 297-348.
  24. Beetsma, Roel M W J & van der Ploeg, Frederick, 1994. "Intramarginal Interventions, Bands and the Pattern of EMS Exchange Rate Distributions," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 35(3), pages 583-602, August.
  25. Engle, Robert F & Ng, Victor K, 1993. " Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1749-1778, December.
  26. Bertola, Giuseppe & Caballero, Ricardo J, 1992. "Target Zones and Realignments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 520-536, June.
  27. repec:bil:bilpap:0501 is not listed on IDEAS
  28. BESSEC Marie, "undated". "The Asymmetric Exchange Rate Dynamics in the EMS: a Time-Varying Threshold Test," EcoMod2003 330700015, EcoMod.
  29. Christopher J. Neely & Mark P. Taylor, 2007. "Exchange rate intervention," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 107-108.
  30. Lucjan T. Orlowski, 2005. "Targeting Relative Inflation Forecast as Monetary Policy Framework for Adopting the Euro," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp754, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  31. Paul R. Krugman, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(3), pages 669-682.
  32. Egert, Balazs & Drine, Imed & Lommatzsch, Kirsten & Rault, Christophe, 2003. "The Balassa-Samuelson effect in Central and Eastern Europe: myth or reality?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 552-572, September.
  33. Bofinger, Peter & Wollmershauser, Timo, 2001. "Is there a third way to EMU for the EU accession countries?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 253-274, September.
  34. Barry Eichengreen, 2006. "Can Emerging Markets Float? Should They Inflation Target?," Chapters,in: Monetary Integration and Dollarization, chapter 8 Edward Elgar Publishing.
  35. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2004. "Exchange rate risk and convergence to the Euro," ZEI Working Papers B 25-2004, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
  36. Paul Grauwe & Gunther Schnabl, 2005. "Nominal Versus Real Convergence - EMU Entry Scenarios for the New Member States," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(4), pages 537-555, November.
  37. Kutan, Ali M. & Yigit, Taner M., 2004. "Nominal and real stochastic convergence of transition economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 23-36, March.
  38. Paul de Grauwe & Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "Nominal versus Real Convergence with Respect to EMU Accession.How to Cope with the Balassa-Samuelson Dilemma," EUI-RSCAS Working Papers 20, European University Institute (EUI), Robert Schuman Centre of Advanced Studies (RSCAS).
  39. Monika Blaszkiewicz & Przemek Kowalski & Lukasz Rawdanowicz & Przemyslaw Wozniak, 2004. "Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson Effect in Selected Countries of Central and Eastern Europe," CASE Network Reports 0057, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
  40. Ben Hunt, 1999. "Inter-forecast monetary policy implementation: fixed-instrument versus MCI-based strategies," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/1, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  41. Jonas, Jiri, 2004. "Euro adoption and Maastricht criteria: Rules or discretion?," ZEI Working Papers B 14-2004, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
  42. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2004. "Money rules for monetary convergence to the euro," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 817-837, October.
  43. Jiri Jonas & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2003. "Inflation Targeting in Transition Countries: Experience and Prospects," NBER Working Papers 9667, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

as
in new window


Cited by:

  1. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2010. "Monetary policy rules for convergence to the Euro," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 148-159, June.
  2. Sahar Bahmani & Ali Kutan, 2010. "How stable is the demand for money in emerging economies?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(26), pages 3307-3318.
  3. Marko Malovic & Malisa Djukic & Srdjan Redzepagic, 2011. "Maastricht Criteria at the Age of 18: Are They Converging, Which Party and to What End?," Book Chapters, Institute of Economic Sciences.
  4. Kocenda, Evzen & Valachy, Juraj, 2006. "Exchange rate volatility and regime change: A Visegrad comparison," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 727-753, December.
  5. Mikek, Peter, 2008. "Alternative monetary policies and fiscal regime in new EU members," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 335-353, December.

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Access and download statistics

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:2005-802. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (WDI)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.