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Monetary convergence and risk premiums in the EU candidate countries

  • Orlowski, Lucjan T.

This study examines the link between various monetary policy regimes and the ability to manage inflation and exchange rate risk premiums in the EU candidate countries as they undergo monetary convergence to the eurozone. The underlying hypothesis is that a system of 'flexible inflation targeting' may be an optimal policy choice for managing these two categories of risk. A model of inflation and exchange rate risk premiums within the context of inflation targeting is proposed. Recent trends in these risk premiums in Hungary, the Czech Republic and Poland are tested by using the GARCH (1,1) methodology.

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Paper provided by University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies in its series ZEI Working Papers with number B 26-2002.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:zeiwps:b262002
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  1. Roberto Golinelli & Riccardo Rovelli, 2002. "Monetary Policy Transmission, Interest Rate Rules and Inflation Targeting in Three Transition Countries," Eastward Enlargement of the Euro-zone Working Papers wp10, Free University Berlin, Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence, revised 01 Aug 2002.
  2. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2001. "Monetary convergence of the EU candidates to the Euro: A theoretical framework and policy implications," ZEI Working Papers B 25-2001, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
  3. Barry Eichengreen, 2002. "Can Emerging Markets Float? Should They Inflation Target?," Working Papers Series 36, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  4. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1998. "Inflation Targeting as a Monetary Policy Rule," NBER Working Papers 6790, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Neumann, Manfred J. M. & von Hagen, Jürgen, 2002. "Does inflation targeting matter?," ZEI Working Papers B 01-2002, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
  6. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2004. "Monetary policy and exchange rate volatility in a small open economy," Economics Working Papers 835, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  7. Laurence Ball, 1998. "Policy Rules for Open Economies," NBER Working Papers 6760, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Ali M. Kutan & Josef C. Brada, 1998. "The persistence of moderate inflation in the Czech Republic and the Koruna crisis of May 1997," Working Papers 1998-021, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  9. Bofinger, Peter & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2001. "Is there a third way to EMU for the EU accession countries?," Munich Reprints in Economics 20209, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  10. Mark Zelmer & Andrea Schaechter, 2000. "Adopting Inflation Targeting; Practical Issues for Emerging Market Countries," IMF Occasional Papers 202, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Andrew Haldane, 1997. "Some Issues in Inflation Targeting," Bank of England working papers 74, Bank of England.
  12. Alberto Alesina & Robert J. Barro, 2001. "Dollarization," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 381-385, May.
  13. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2001. "From inflation targeting to the euro-peg: A model of monetary convergence for transition economies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 233-251, September.
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