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Exchange rate volatility and regime change: A Visegrad comparison

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  • Kocenda, Evzen
  • Valachy, Juraj

Abstract

Exchange rate stability was defined as one of the prerequisites for monetary integration in Europe. In this paper, we analyze recent developments in the volatility of exchange rates of the Central European countries (the Visegrad Group) and a selected group of European Union countries (the Snake) participating in the former European Monetary System. We compare volatilities in the currencies of both groups under specific exchange rate regimes using two different approaches to modeling exchange rate volatility: squared returns parametric model and GARCH. Both methods provide identical results for the currencies of the Visegrad group: an increase in volatility after a floating exchange rate regime was introduced. The case of the Snake countries exhibits mixed results for two currencies and a concurring result for the others: a decrease in volatility. In one case we are left with an insignificant coefficient. We consider the results as robust and suitable for policy making decisions.
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  • Kocenda, Evzen & Valachy, Juraj, 2006. "Exchange rate volatility and regime change: A Visegrad comparison," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 727-753, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jcecon:v:34:y:2006:i:4:p:727-753
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    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • P59 - Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems - - - Other

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