IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Exchange rate risk and convergence to the Euro

  • Orlowski, Lucjan T.

This paper proposes a new monetary policy framework for effectively navigating the path to adopting the euro. The proposed policy is based on relative inflation forecast targeting and incorporates an ancillary target of declining exchange rate risk, which is suggested as a key criterion for evaluating the currency stability. A model linking exchange rate volatility to differentials over the euro zone in both inflation (target variable) and interest rate (instrument variable) is proposed. The model is empirically tested for the Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary, the selected new Member States of the EU that use direct inflation targeting to guide their monetary policies. The empirical methodology is based on the TARCH(p,q,r)-M model.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/39592/1/478944152.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn in its series ZEI Working Papers with number B 25-2004.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:zbw:zeiwps:b252004
Contact details of provider: Postal: Walter-Flex-Straße 3, D - 53113 Bonn
Web page: http://www.zei.de/

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2004. "A Scapegoat Model of Exchange Rate Fluctuations," Working Papers 04.01, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
  2. Garett Jones & Ali M Kutan, 2004. "Exchange Rate Management Strategies in the Accession Countries: The Case of Hungary," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(1), pages 23-44, March.
  3. Favero, Carlo A. & Giavazzi, Francesco, 2004. "Inflation Targeting and Debt: Lessons from Brazil," CEPR Discussion Papers 4376, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2003. "What is Wrong with Taylor Rules? Using Judgment in Monetary Policy through Targeting Rules," NBER Working Papers 9421, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2005. "Monetary convergence of the EU accession countries to the eurozone: A theoretical framework and policy implications," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 203-225, January.
  6. Ser-Huang Poon & Clive W.J. Granger, 2003. "Forecasting Volatility in Financial Markets: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 478-539, June.
  7. Roberto Golinelli & Riccardo Rovelli, 2002. "Painless disinflation? Monetary policy rules in Hungary, 1991-99," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 10(1), pages 55-91, March.
  8. Paul de Grauwe & Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "Nominal versus Real Convergence with Respect to EMU Accession.How to Cope with the Balassa-Samuelson Dilemma," EUI-RSCAS Working Papers 20, European University Institute (EUI), Robert Schuman Centre of Advanced Studies (RSCAS).
  9. Lorenzo Giorgianni, 1997. "Foreign Exchange Risk Premium; Does Fiscal Policy Matter? Evidence From Italian Data," IMF Working Papers 97/39, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Bofinger, Peter & Wollmershauser, Timo, 2001. "Is there a third way to EMU for the EU accession countries?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 253-274, September.
  11. Lucjan Orlowski, 2003. "Monetary Convergence and Risk Premiums in the EU Accession Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 251-267, July.
  12. Agnes Csermely, 2004. "Convergence Expectations and Convergence Strategies. Lessons from the Hungarian Experiences in the pre-EU period1," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(1), pages 104-126, March.
  13. Balázs Égert & Imed Drine & Kirsten Lommatzsch & Christophe Rault, 2002. "The Balassa-Samuelson effect in Central and Eastern Europe: Myth or reality?," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 483, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  14. Andrew T. Levin & Fabio M. Natalucci & Jeremy M. Piger, 2004. "The macroeconomic effects of inflation targeting," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 51-80.
  15. Olivier Jeanne & Andrew K. Rose, 1999. "Noise Trading and Exchange Rate Regimes," NBER Working Papers 7104, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Laurence H. Meyer, 2004. "Practical problems and obstacles to inflation targeting," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 151-160.
  17. Lucjan T Orlowski, 2005. "Money Rules For The Eurozone Candidate Countries," Macroeconomics 0501033, EconWPA.
  18. Juraj Valachy & Evžen Ko?enda, 2003. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Volatility: Comparison of the Snake and Visegrad," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2003-622, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  19. Peter B. Kenen & Ellen E. Meade, 2003. "EU Accession and the Euro: Close Together or Far Apart?," Policy Briefs PB03-09, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  20. Roman Matoušek & Anita Taci, 2003. "Direct Inflation Targeting and Nominal Convergence: The Czech Case," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 269-283, July.
  21. Kutan, Ali M. & Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2006. "Monetary convergence to the Euro," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 307-310, December.
  22. R. Gaston Gelos & Ratna Sahay, 2001. "Financial market spillovers in transition economies," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 9(1), pages 53-86, March.
  23. Jonas, Jiri, 2004. "Euro adoption and Maastricht criteria: Rules or discretion?," ZEI Working Papers B 14-2004, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
  24. International Monetary Fund, 2000. "Exchange Rate Regimes in Selected Advanced Transition Economies; Coping with Transition, Capital Inflows, and EU Accession," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 00/3, International Monetary Fund.
  25. Jiri Jonas & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2003. "Inflation Targeting in Transition Countries: Experience and Prospects," NBER Working Papers 9667, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. C Maxwell Watson, 2004. "Adopting the Euro: an Introduction to Four Country Studies," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(1), pages 95-103, March.
  27. Lawrence R. Glosten & Ravi Jagannathan & David E. Runkle, 1993. "On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess return on stocks," Staff Report 157, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:zeiwps:b252004. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.