Predicting nominal exchange rate movements using skewness information from options prices
This paper uses a measure of the relative price of out-of-the-money (OTM) European put and call currency options to forecast daily movements in the dollar|euro exchange rate over the period of January 2002-June 2004. As these OTM options are pure bets on future movements of the exchange rate, their relative price contains information about the market's estimate of the relative probabilities of appreciation or depreciation of the euro over the life of the options. Forecasts that include the relative price of the OTM options offer significantly better out-of-sample predictions of tomorrow's exchange rate than either the simple random walk or an interest rate parity model. These results offer new insight into the puzzle of the day-to-day volatility of currency prices that should be driven by slow-moving macro fundamentals. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Volume (Year): 15 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/1076-9307/|
|Order Information:||Web: http://jws-edcv.wiley.com/jcatalog/JournalsCatalogOrder/JournalOrder?PRINT_ISSN=1076-9307|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Breeden, Douglas T & Litzenberger, Robert H, 1978. "Prices of State-contingent Claims Implicit in Option Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(4), pages 621-51, October.
- Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 1999.
"Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics,"
NBER Working Papers
7317, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Evans, Martin D. & Lyons, Richard K., 1999. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Research Program in Finance, Working Paper Series qt0dh1c16w, Research Program in Finance, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Martin D. D. Evans and Richard K. Lyons., 1999. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-288, University of California at Berkeley.
- Pan, Jun, 2002. "The jump-risk premia implicit in options: evidence from an integrated time-series study," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 3-50, January.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2000.
"Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy and Encompassing for Nested Models,"
Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers
0319, Econometric Society.
- Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2001. "Tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing for nested models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 85-110, November.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael McCracken, 1999. "Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy and Encompassing for Nested Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 1241, Society for Computational Economics.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 1999. "Tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing for nested models," Research Working Paper 99-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A., 1976. "The valuation of options for alternative stochastic processes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 145-166.
- Mark, Nelson C. & Sul, Donggyu, 2001.
"Nominal exchange rates and monetary fundamentals: Evidence from a small post-Bretton woods panel,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 29-52, February.
- Nelson Mark & Donggyu Sul, 1998. "Norminal Exchange Rates and Monetary Fundamentals: Evidence from a Small Post-Bretton Woods Panel," Working Papers 98-19, Ohio State University, Department of Economics.
- Campa, Jose Manuel & Chang, P H Kevin, 1996.
"Arbitrage-Based Tests of Target-Zone Credibility: Evidence from ERM Cross-Rate Options,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 86(4), pages 726-40, September.
- Campa, J.M. & Chang, P.H.K., 1995. "Arbitrage-Based Tests of Target Zone Credibility: Evidence from ERM Cross-Rate Options," Papers 95-25, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
- Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
- Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2004.
"Exchange rate risk and convergence to the Euro,"
ZEI Working Papers
B 25-2004, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
- Yock Y. Chong & David F. Hendry, 1986. "Econometric Evaluation of Linear Macro-Economic Models," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(4), pages 671-690.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-44, January.
- McCracken, Michael W., 2007. "Asymptotics for out of sample tests of Granger causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 719-752, October.
- West, K.D., 1994.
"Asymptotic Inference About Predictive Ability,"
9417, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Mc Cracken, Michael W., 2000. "Robust out-of-sample inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 195-223, December.
- Berben, R-P. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 1998. "Does the absence of cointegration explain the typical findings in long horizon regressions?," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 9814, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- Richard Clarida & Lucio Sarno & Mark Taylor & Giorgio Valente, 2001.
"The Out-of-Sample Success of Term Structure Models as Exchange Rate Predictors: A Step Beyond,"
NBER Working Papers
8601, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Clarida, Richard H. & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P. & Valente, Giorgio, 2003. "The out-of-sample success of term structure models as exchange rate predictors: a step beyond," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 61-83, May.
- Clarida, Richard & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P & Valente, Giorgio, 2002. "The Out-of-Sample Success of Term Structure Models as Exchange Rate Predictors: A Step Beyond," CEPR Discussion Papers 3281, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Meese, Richard A & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. " On Unit Roots and the Empirical Modeling of Exchange Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1029-35, September.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995. "Empirical research on nominal exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 33, pages 1689-1729 Elsevier.
- Sugato Chakravarty & Huseyin Gulen & Stewart Mayhew, 2004. "Informed Trading in Stock and Option Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1235-1258, 06.
- Richard Luger, 2004. "Exact Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy with an Application to the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Staff Working Papers 04-2, Bank of Canada.
- Bates, David S., 2000. "Post-'87 crash fears in the S&P 500 futures option market," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 181-238.
- Chinn, Menzie D. & Meese, Richard A., 1995. "Banking on currency forecasts: How predictable is change in money?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1-2), pages 161-178, February.
- Harvey, David I & Leybourne, Stephen J & Newbold, Paul, 1998. "Tests for Forecast Encompassing," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 254-59, April.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:15:y:2010:i:1:p:75-92. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.